Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › JRPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a JRPG?

JRPG

Of 1,051 developers who shipped a JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,623 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×991 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 1,623 games are announced against 590 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 1,623 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,051
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $12k → $6.7k → $4.8k → $7.7k → $8.1k → $5.8k (still earning) → $2.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,051
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,294)
Top 25% $38k (exactly $38,381)
Top 5% $622k (exactly $622,198)
Developers, 2 yr 1,051
Released games 4,377
Announced 1,623
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 447,070 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $38k, 1 in 20 over $620k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 8 in 10 of the 705 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,623 games are announced against 590 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with JRPG

44 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. JRPG + Ninja Fair $19k 7 devs
  2. JRPG + Romance Fair $13k 153 devs
  3. JRPG + Artificial Intelligence Fair $4.0k 25 devs
  4. JRPG + Dragons Poor odds $78k 23 devs
  5. JRPG + Mechs Poor odds $34k 9 devs
  6. JRPG + Robots Poor odds $29k 13 devs
  7. JRPG + Time Travel Poor odds $24k 10 devs
  8. JRPG + Capitalism Poor odds $19k 9 devs
  9. JRPG + Alternate History Poor odds $16k 21 devs
  10. JRPG + War Poor odds $14k 24 devs
  11. JRPG + Sci-fi Poor odds $12k 82 devs
  12. JRPG + Faith Poor odds $11k 14 devs
  13. JRPG + Female Protagonist Poor odds $11k 304 devs
  14. JRPG + Historical Poor odds $9.4k 20 devs
  15. JRPG + Detective Poor odds $8.7k 29 devs
  16. JRPG + Crime Poor odds $8.7k 13 devs
  17. JRPG + Zombies Poor odds $7.4k 17 devs
  18. JRPG + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $7.2k 35 devs
  19. JRPG + Gothic Poor odds $7.2k 12 devs
  20. JRPG + Psychological Horror Poor odds $6.9k 55 devs
  21. JRPG + Fantasy Poor odds $6.7k 538 devs
  22. JRPG + Futuristic Poor odds $6.3k 35 devs
  23. JRPG + Magic Poor odds $5.9k 241 devs
  24. JRPG + Mythology Poor odds $5.4k 35 devs
  25. JRPG + LGBTQ+ Poor odds $5.1k 74 devs
  26. JRPG + Medieval Poor odds $4.9k 164 devs
  27. JRPG + Vampires Poor odds $4.2k 16 devs
  28. JRPG + Demons Poor odds $4.1k 45 devs
  29. JRPG + Mystery Poor odds $3.9k 76 devs
  30. JRPG + Nature Poor odds $3.9k 18 devs
  31. JRPG + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.8k 117 devs
  32. JRPG + Modern Poor odds $3.6k 37 devs
  33. JRPG + Supernatural Poor odds $3.1k 31 devs
  34. JRPG + Psychological Poor odds $3.1k 22 devs
  35. JRPG + Lovecraftian Poor odds $3.1k 11 devs
  36. JRPG + Cyberpunk Poor odds $2.7k 27 devs
  37. JRPG + Horror Poor odds $2.5k 70 devs
  38. JRPG + Dystopian Poor odds $2.0k 26 devs
  39. JRPG + Cats Poor odds $1.3k 21 devs
  40. JRPG + Space Poor odds $599 15 devs
  41. JRPG + Conspiracy Poor odds $599 11 devs
  42. JRPG + Martial Arts Dead $47k 5 devs
  43. JRPG + Steampunk Dead $2.1k 7 devs
  44. JRPG + Thriller Dead $1.9k 11 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Monster Hunter: World 2018 · $285M Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 2025 · $272M Persona 5 Royal 2022 · $165M NieR:Automata™ 2017 · $138M MONSTER HUNTER RISE 2022 · $96M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Hunter: World older $29.99 317,068 89% 9.5M $285M (exactly $285,266,080) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
NieR:Automata™ older $39.99 115,103 88% 3.5M $138M (exactly $138,089,069) Square Enix, PlatinumGames Inc.
MONSTER HUNTER RISE older $39.99 79,847 84% 2.4M $96M (exactly $95,792,446) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
DELTARUNE $24.99 124,894 98% 3.7M $94M (exactly $93,633,032) tobyfox
CODE VEIN older $59.99 46,315 83% 1.4M $83M (exactly $83,353,106) Bandai Namco Studios
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
South Park™: The Stick of Truth™ older $29.99 60,770 97% 1.8M $55M (exactly $54,674,769) Obsidian Entertainment
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
FINAL FANTASY VII REBIRTH $49.99 25,363 75% 761k $38M (exactly $38,036,891) Square Enix
FINAL FANTASY XVI $49.99 24,065 78% 722k $36M (exactly $36,090,280) Square Enix
Digimon Story Time Stranger $69.99 15,845 89% 475k $33M (exactly $33,269,746) Media.Vision Inc.
Nioh 3 $69.99 11,777 78% 353k $25M (exactly $24,728,167) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road $69.99 11,180 88% 335k $23M (exactly $23,474,646) LEVEL5 Inc.
Tokyo Xtreme Racer $49.99 15,284 93% 459k $23M (exactly $22,921,415) Genki Co., Ltd.
FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time $59.99 11,771 91% 353k $21M (exactly $21,184,269) LEVEL5 Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.