Do I ship it?

Games › JRPG › JRPG + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja JRPG?

JRPG + Ninja

Only 7 developers shipped a Ninja JRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Nioh 3, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $19k, ×31 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $15k. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 10 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 30.7 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 10 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for JRPG + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $14k (exactly $14,086)
Median $19k (exactly $19,292)
Top 25% $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631)
Top 5% $25M (exactly $24,728,167)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 33
Announced 10
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $15.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 55,360 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $15k, median $19k, 1 in 4 over $1.1M, 1 in 20 over $24M.

3 in 10 developers made under $15k. 10 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  4. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  5. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  6. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  8. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  9. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  10. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced
  12. + Resource ManagementFair36 devs · median $2.7k · 27 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Nioh: Complete Edition 2017 · $44M Nioh 3 2026 · $25M SENRAN KAGURA ESTIVAL VERSUS 2017 · $4.5M SENRAN KAGURA SHINOVI VERSUS 2016 · $2.1M Neptunia x SENRAN KAGURA: Ninja Wars 2022 · $1.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Nioh: Complete Edition older $49.99 29,580 78% 887k $44M (exactly $44,361,126) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Nioh 3 $69.99 11,777 78% 353k $25M (exactly $24,728,167) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
SENRAN KAGURA ESTIVAL VERSUS older $29.99 4,986 94% 150k $4.5M (exactly $4,485,904) Tamsoft
SENRAN KAGURA SHINOVI VERSUS older $19.99 3,542 94% 106k $2.1M (exactly $2,124,137) Tamsoft
Neptunia x SENRAN KAGURA: Ninja Wars older $49.99 999 82% 30k $1.5M (exactly $1,498,200) Idea Factory, Compile Heart, Tamsoft
LIVE A LIVE older $49.99 785 85% 24k $1.2M (exactly $1,177,264) Square Enix, historia Inc.
SAMURAI MAIDEN older $59.99 648 60% 19k $1.2M (exactly $1,166,206) SHADE Inc.
Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage $19.99 1,897 71% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) RGG Studio
Way of the Samurai 3 older $19.99 871 73% 26k $522k (exactly $522,339) ACQUIRE Corp.
Jerez's Arena Ⅱ older $24.99 275 80% 8.3k $206k (exactly $206,168) 永恆艾莉絲工坊
Sakura Gozen $16.99 320 96% 9.6k $163k (exactly $163,104) kaniheadcrab
Loli Ninja Village $6.99 92 80% 2.8k $19k (exactly $19,292) PAON, 072 Localize
戦国英雄譚-Samurai Heroes- $9.99 47 89% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) hizaniya games
Project: Mirror 2 $4.99 25 44% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) 430Games
Assassin's Shadows $14.99 3 66% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,349) Noxurtica

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.