Do I ship it?

Games › JRPG › JRPG + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy JRPG?

JRPG + Dark Fantasy

Of 117 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 231 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×6.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $3.0M, ×4903 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 231 games are announced against 68 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 231 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 117
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.9k → $2.4k → $1.5k → $3.0k → $1.3k → $3.3k → $2.0k (still earning) → $4.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 117
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,777)
Top 25% $38k (exactly $38,235)
Top 5% $3.1M (exactly $3,079,339)
Developers, 2 yr 117
Released games 373
Announced 231
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Combat, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $25.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $25.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 266,468 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $38k, 1 in 20 over $3.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 70 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 231 games are announced against 68 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 2025 · $272M CODE VEIN 2019 · $83M Metaphor: ReFantazio 2024 · $53M Nioh 2 – The Complete Edition 2021 · $51M Nioh: Complete Edition 2017 · $44M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
CODE VEIN older $59.99 46,315 83% 1.4M $83M (exactly $83,353,106) Bandai Namco Studios
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
Nioh 2 – The Complete Edition older $49.99 33,892 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,827,832) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Nioh: Complete Edition older $49.99 29,580 78% 887k $44M (exactly $44,361,126) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
NieR Replicant™ ver.1.22474487139... older $59.99 21,493 88% 645k $39M (exactly $38,680,952) Square Enix, Toylogic Inc.
FINAL FANTASY XVI $49.99 24,065 78% 722k $36M (exactly $36,090,280) Square Enix
Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen older $29.99 37,437 88% 1.1M $34M (exactly $33,682,069) Capcom
Wo Long: Fallen Dynasty older $39.99 20,873 49% 626k $25M (exactly $25,041,338) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Nioh 3 $69.99 11,777 78% 353k $25M (exactly $24,728,167) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
CODE VEIN II $69.99 5,193 66% 156k $11M (exactly $10,903,742) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
BLACK SOULS $13.99 7,337 95% 220k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,339) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
BLACK SOULS II $13.99 5,277 97% 158k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,757) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
Aethermancer · EA $25.99 2,585 91% 78k $2.0M (exactly $2,015,524) moi rai games
The Nameless: Slay Dragon $17.99 2,050 91% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) The Nameless Epic
Lost Eidolons: Veil of the Witch $24.99 1,293 81% 39k $969k (exactly $969,362) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.