Do I ship it?

Games › JRPG › JRPG + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery JRPG?

JRPG + Mystery

Of 76 developers who shipped a Mystery JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 161 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.9k, ×6.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×2496 the market median. Revenue is up 555% on the market; 161 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 555% on the market, 161 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 76
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $8.2k → $9.6k → $2.9k → $2.2k → $6.9k → $11k (still earning) → $33k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 76
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $28,786)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,567,186)
Developers, 2 yr 76
Released games 262
Announced 161
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 555% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 136,701 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $3.9k, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 161 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DELTARUNE 2025 · $94M Persona 3 Reload 2024 · $78M Persona 4 Golden 2020 · $43M Echoes of Aincrad 2026 · $8.6M Digimon Survive 2022 · $5.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DELTARUNE $24.99 124,894 98% 3.7M $94M (exactly $93,633,032) tobyfox
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
Persona 4 Golden older $19.99 71,306 97% 2.1M $43M (exactly $42,762,208) ATLUS
Echoes of Aincrad $69.99 4,108 47% 123k $8.6M (exactly $8,625,568) Game Studio Inc.
Digimon Survive older $59.99 3,124 78% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,622,263) HYDE, Inc.
Soul Hackers 2 older $59.99 2,300 65% 69k $4.1M (exactly $4,139,310) ATLUS
PARANORMASIGHT: The Seven Mysteries of Honjo older $19.99 6,123 95% 184k $3.7M (exactly $3,671,963) Square Enix
Impostor Factory older $9.99 11,967 95% 359k $3.6M (exactly $3,586,510) Freebird Games
ONE PIECE ODYSSEY older $39.99 2,502 78% 75k $3.0M (exactly $3,001,649) ILCA, Inc.
Persona 3 Portable older $19.99 4,728 81% 142k $2.8M (exactly $2,835,382) ATLUS
PARANORMASIGHT: The Mermaid's Curse $24.99 2,169 95% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,626,099) Square Enix
RAIDOU Remastered: The Mystery of the Soulless Army $49.99 1,045 93% 31k $1.6M (exactly $1,567,186) ATLUS
Escape from Ever After $24.99 1,537 96% 46k $1.2M (exactly $1,152,289) Sleepy Castle Studio, Wing-It! Creative
Demonschool $24.99 984 91% 30k $738k (exactly $737,705) Necrosoft Games, Mystic Systems
Welcome to Elderfield $17.99 1,334 87% 40k $720k (exactly $719,960) Chris Cote
Hermit and Pig $14.99 174 98% 5.2k $78k (exactly $78,248) Heavy Lunch Studio LLC
永生之庭 $7.99 284 48% 8.5k $68k (exactly $68,075) IMaiIna
Nobody Nowhere $9.99 172 93% 5.2k $52k (exactly $51,548) 深渊标记 Tag:hadal

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.