Should I ship a Fantasy JRPG?
JRPG + Fantasy
Of 538 developers who shipped a Fantasy JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 820 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.7k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1757 the market median. Revenue is up 120% on the market; 820 games are announced against 296 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.7k (exactly $6,710) |
| Top 25% | $41k (exactly $41,083) |
| Top 5% | $1.1M (exactly $1,103,495) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 538 |
| Released games | 2,198 |
| Announced | 820 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 120% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- JRPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Turn-Based Combat
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 432,795 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 8 in 10 of the 368 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 820 games are announced against 296 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Mystery DungeonStrong odds
- + NinjaFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + ManagementFair
- + Souls-likeFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + LootFair
- + RoguelikeFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
Comparable games
Monster Hunter: World 2018 · $285M 
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 2025 · $272M 
MONSTER HUNTER RISE 2022 · $96M 
DELTARUNE 2025 · $94M 
South Park™: The Stick of Truth™ 2014 · $55M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Monster Hunter: World | older | $29.99 | 317,068 89% | 9.5M | $285M (exactly $285,266,080) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 | $49.99 | 181,667 95% | 5.5M | $272M (exactly $272,446,000) | Sandfall Interactive | |
| | MONSTER HUNTER RISE | older | $39.99 | 79,847 84% | 2.4M | $96M (exactly $95,792,446) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | DELTARUNE | $24.99 | 124,894 98% | 3.7M | $94M (exactly $93,633,032) | tobyfox | |
| | South Park™: The Stick of Truth™ | older | $29.99 | 60,770 97% | 1.8M | $55M (exactly $54,674,769) | Obsidian Entertainment |
 | Metaphor: ReFantazio | $69.99 | 25,224 89% | 757k | $53M (exactly $52,962,833) | ATLUS | |
 | FINAL FANTASY VII REMAKE INTERGRADE | older | $39.99 | 43,473 87% | 1.3M | $52M (exactly $52,154,558) | Square Enix |
 | Nioh 2 – The Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 33,892 87% | 1.0M | $51M (exactly $50,827,832) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | Granblue Fantasy: Relink | older | $39.99 | 41,227 89% | 1.2M | $49M (exactly $49,460,032) | Cygames, Inc. |
 | OMORI | older | $19.99 | 79,836 97% | 2.4M | $48M (exactly $47,877,649) | OMOCAT, LLC |
 | FINAL FANTASY VII REBIRTH | $49.99 | 25,363 75% | 761k | $38M (exactly $38,036,891) | Square Enix | |
 | FINAL FANTASY XVI | $49.99 | 24,065 78% | 722k | $36M (exactly $36,090,280) | Square Enix | |
 | Digimon Story Time Stranger | $69.99 | 15,845 89% | 475k | $33M (exactly $33,269,746) | Media.Vision Inc. | |
 | Nioh 3 | $69.99 | 11,777 78% | 353k | $25M (exactly $24,728,167) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time | $59.99 | 11,771 91% | 353k | $21M (exactly $21,184,269) | LEVEL5 Inc. | |
 | Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii | $59.99 | 6,584 88% | 198k | $12M (exactly $11,849,225) | RGG Studio | |
 | Monster Hunter Stories 3: Twisted Reflection | $69.99 | 5,605 77% | 168k | $12M (exactly $11,768,818) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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