Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic JRPG?

JRPG + Post-apocalyptic

Of 35 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 75 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.2k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2313 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 75 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 75 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.9k → $2.5k → $92k → $25k → $5.3k → $10k → $10k (still earning) → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $2.3k (exactly $2,279)
Median $7.2k (exactly $7,196)
Top 25% $42k (exactly $42,085)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,452,837)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 121
Announced 75
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 187,126 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.3k, median $7.2k, 1 in 4 over $42k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.3k. 8 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 75 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
NieR:Automata™ older $39.99 115,103 88% 3.5M $138M (exactly $138,089,069) Square Enix, PlatinumGames Inc.
CODE VEIN older $59.99 46,315 83% 1.4M $83M (exactly $83,353,106) Bandai Namco Studios
NieR Replicant™ ver.1.22474487139... older $59.99 21,493 88% 645k $39M (exactly $38,680,952) Square Enix, Toylogic Inc.
Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance older $59.99 7,858 91% 236k $14M (exactly $14,142,043) ATLUS
GOD EATER 3 older $59.99 7,736 80% 232k $14M (exactly $13,922,479) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
Eastward older $24.99 14,435 83% 433k $11M (exactly $10,821,920) Pixpil
LISA: The Painful older $19.99 13,129 95% 394k $7.9M (exactly $7,873,461) Dingaling Productions
Shin Megami Tensei III Nocturne HD Remaster older $49.99 3,989 87% 120k $6.0M (exactly $5,982,303) ATLUS
GOD EATER 2 Rage Burst older $49.99 3,510 80% 105k $5.3M (exactly $5,263,947) BANDAI NAMCO Studio, SHIFT, QLOC
FREEDOM WARS Remastered $39.99 1,211 69% 36k $1.5M (exactly $1,452,837) Dimps Corporation
Artis Impact $18.99 2,308 84% 69k $1.3M (exactly $1,314,868) Mas
FRONT MISSION 3: Remake $34.99 453 74% 14k $476k (exactly $475,514) MegaPixel Studio S.A.
MeteoriteFall $12.99 651 78% 20k $254k (exactly $253,695) ST studio
BLUE REFLECTION Quartet $49.99 140 57% 4.2k $210k (exactly $209,958) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
HYKE:Northern Light(s) $27.99 242 73% 7.3k $203k (exactly $203,207) Akatsuki Games Inc., Blast Edge Games I… (Akatsuki Games Inc., Blast Edge Games Inc.)
永生之庭 $7.99 284 48% 8.5k $68k (exactly $68,075) IMaiIna
Voice of Belldona · EA $11.99 117 72% 3.5k $42k (exactly $42,085) StoryCropStudio
Dark Sky $19.99 53 66% 1.6k $32k (exactly $31,784) Ganymede Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.