Should I ship a Sci-fi JRPG?
JRPG + Sci-fi
Of 82 developers who shipped a Sci-fi JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 174 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $12k, ×19 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $780k, ×1255 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 174 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.1k (exactly $1,075) |
|---|---|
| Median | $12k (exactly $12,163) |
| Top 25% | $63k (exactly $62,987) |
| Top 5% | $788k (exactly $788,203) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 82 |
| Released games | 311 |
| Announced | 174 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $10.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- JRPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Action
- Price point
- $10.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 13,218 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 7 in 10 of the 53 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 174 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Mystery DungeonStrong odds
- + NinjaFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + ManagementFair
- + Souls-likeFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + LootFair
- + RoguelikeFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
Comparable games
NieR:Automata™ 2017 · $138M 
FINAL FANTASY VII REMAKE INTERGRADE 2022 · $52M 
SCARLET NEXUS 2021 · $25M 
FINAL FANTASY X/X-2 HD Remaster 2016 · $18M 
Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition 2019 · $16M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | NieR:Automata™ | older | $39.99 | 115,103 88% | 3.5M | $138M (exactly $138,089,069) | Square Enix, PlatinumGames Inc. |
| | FINAL FANTASY VII REMAKE INTERGRADE | older | $39.99 | 43,473 87% | 1.3M | $52M (exactly $52,154,558) | Square Enix |
| | SCARLET NEXUS | older | $59.99 | 13,749 81% | 412k | $25M (exactly $24,744,075) | BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc. |
| | FINAL FANTASY X/X-2 HD Remaster | older | $29.99 | 19,857 87% | 596k | $18M (exactly $17,865,343) | Square Enix |
| | Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 10,810 89% | 324k | $16M (exactly $16,211,757) | h.a.n.d., Inc., Media.Vision Inc. |
 | SD GUNDAM G GENERATION CROSS RAYS | older | $59.99 | 6,939 82% | 208k | $12M (exactly $12,488,118) | TOM CREATE, 株式会社トムクリエイト |
 | CRISIS CORE –FINAL FANTASY VII– REUNION | older | $49.99 | 6,949 89% | 208k | $10M (exactly $10,421,415) | Square Enix, TOSE CO., LTD. |
 | Super Robot Wars 30 | older | $59.99 | 5,608 85% | 168k | $10M (exactly $10,092,718) | Bandai Namco Forge Digitals Inc. |
 | CrossCode | older | $19.99 | 16,376 92% | 491k | $9.8M (exactly $9,820,687) | Radical Fish Games |
 | FINAL FANTASY® XIII | older | $15.99 | 16,314 74% | 489k | $7.8M (exactly $7,825,826) | Square Enix |
 | Lost Soul Aside™ | $59.99 | 1,307 59% | 39k | $2.4M (exactly $2,352,208) | Ultizero Games | |
 | Kotama and Academy Citadel | $19.99 | 2,542 80% | 76k | $1.5M (exactly $1,524,437) | Atomstring Games | |
 | The Legend of Heroes: Trails beyond the Horizon | $59.99 | 710 93% | 21k | $1.3M (exactly $1,277,787) | Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH | |
 | The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak II | $59.99 | 669 83% | 20k | $1.2M (exactly $1,203,999) | Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH | |
 | Just a To the Moon Series Beach Episode | $7.99 | 3,784 98% | 114k | $907k (exactly $907,025) | Freebird Games | |
 | Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection | $39.99 | 657 96% | 20k | $788k (exactly $788,203) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
 | FANTASIAN Neo Dimension | $49.99 | 500 76% | 15k | $750k (exactly $749,850) | Mistwalker Corporation | |
 | Endless Alice | · EA | $8.99 | 2,307 91% | 69k | $622k (exactly $622,198) | HowlingRain, 台灣響雨互娛, 響雨@OSAKA |
 | Utawarerumono: Past and Present Rediscovered | $59.99 | 289 83% | 8.7k | $520k (exactly $520,113) | AQUAPLUS | |
 | FRONT MISSION 3: Remake | $34.99 | 453 74% | 14k | $476k (exactly $475,514) | MegaPixel Studio S.A. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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