Do I ship it?

Games › JRPG › JRPG + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller JRPG?

JRPG + Thriller

Only 11 developers shipped a Thriller JRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Veloria, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×7.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.9k against a market of $630. 15 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 15 announced, ×7.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $310k → $31k → $716 → $3.9k → $2.5k
Outcomes for JRPG + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,948)
Top 25% $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 5% $45k (exactly $44,970)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 38
Announced 15
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 80% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 196 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $44k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

FATAL FRAME / PROJECT ZERO: Mask of the Lunar Eclipse 2023 · $2.4M Shadow Corridor 2 雨ノ四葩 2024 · $486k Lunar Mirror 2023 · EA · $310k Tsugunohi 2021 · $171k Coffin of Ashes 2016 · $164k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FATAL FRAME / PROJECT ZERO: Mask of the Lunar Eclipse older $49.99 1,597 89% 48k $2.4M (exactly $2,395,021) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Shadow Corridor 2 雨ノ四葩 older $18.99 853 87% 26k $486k (exactly $485,954) Space Onigiri Game LLC
Lunar Mirror · EA older $9.99 1,034 78% 31k $310k (exactly $309,890) DSGame
Tsugunohi older $10.99 519 74% 16k $171k (exactly $171,114) ImCyan
Coffin of Ashes older $6.99 784 91% 24k $164k (exactly $164,405) Ladomu, Angels Blue Digital Entertainme… (Ladomu, Angels Blue Digital Entertainment, DigitalEZ)
黑色花与红山羊 / Black Datura & Red Goat older $7.99 519 95% 16k $124k (exactly $124,404) Angels Blue Digital Entertainment, Lado… (Angels Blue Digital Entertainment, Ladomu)
勇者与亡灵之都 older $6.99 356 93% 11k $75k (exactly $74,653) grade
Suicide Countdown: 7 Days older $1.99 989 79% 30k $59k (exactly $59,043) 致意
Red Line older $9.99 155 97% 4.7k $46k (exactly $46,454) Rolling Cat Studio
Veloria $14.99 100 89% 3.0k $45k (exactly $44,970) WANDERING WITCH PROIECTUM
Even20: The Interference of Parallels $6.99 33 90% 990 $6.9k (exactly $6,920) SilverEyes
Sundy Stairway $9.99 13 69% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Yun Seven
My Bullies Are Fucking My Mom! $9.99 12 66% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) HappyDaedalus
Menhera Farm $6.99 12 83% 360 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Sugar Star, シュガースター
Dreaming on the last light 人偶馆绮幻夜 $12.99 5 20% 150 $1.9k (exactly $1,948) Everlasting游戏制作组
博物魅影 $1.99 12 91% 360 $716 (exactly $716) 图南工作室(Tunan Studio)
ESCAPE SITE 13 $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Miwu Studio
Odessa $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Aldorlea Games
Crimson Moon $2.99 6 83% 180 $538 (exactly $538) Spear Soft

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.