Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural JRPG?

JRPG + Supernatural

Of 31 developers who shipped a Supernatural JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×2496 the market median. Revenue is up 495% on the market; 39 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 495% on the market, 39 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $59k → $3.8k → $8.1k → $538 → $3.9k → $898 → $5.5k (still earning) → $33k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,452)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,567,186)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 74
Announced 39
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 495% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Exploration, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 3,941 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
ASTLIBRA Revision older $24.99 30,262 95% 908k $23M (exactly $22,687,421) KEIZO
PARANORMASIGHT: The Seven Mysteries of Honjo older $19.99 6,123 95% 184k $3.7M (exactly $3,671,963) Square Enix
PARANORMASIGHT: The Mermaid's Curse $24.99 2,169 95% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,626,099) Square Enix
RAIDOU Remastered: The Mystery of the Soulless Army $49.99 1,045 93% 31k $1.6M (exactly $1,567,186) ATLUS
Corpse Party (2021) older $19.99 1,422 90% 43k $853k (exactly $852,773) MAGES.
Vampires' Melody older $3.99 5,559 97% 167k $665k (exactly $665,412) AsicxArt
Spirit Hunter: Death Mark older $49.99 344 86% 10k $516k (exactly $515,897) EXPERIENCE
EPHEMERAL -FANTASY ON DARK- older $39.99 173 87% 5.2k $208k (exactly $207,548) dramatic create
THYSIASTERY $17.49 309 80% 9.3k $162k (exactly $162,132) DIRGA
Yokai: Lust Secret 🪭 $14.99 89 83% 2.7k $40k (exactly $40,023) Lewd Star
Be Missed and Remembered: The Letter from Mayoiga $17.99 62 93% 1.9k $33k (exactly $33,461) NEKONEKO-SOFT
The Cursed Moon ~The Girl Trapped in the Haunted House~ $16.99 52 78% 1.6k $27k (exactly $26,504) Tsukki's Tea Party
Makai Agito $9.99 72 94% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,578) Gumi Bytes, Dani Sugimoto-Lee
Kunugi's Life is a Mess! $10.99 59 84% 1.8k $19k (exactly $19,452) Like a Girl
Agent Sirius $9.99 31 80% 930 $9.3k (exactly $9,291) Lunarian
Breath of Death VII: The Beginning: Reanimated $4.99 53 86% 1.6k $7.9k (exactly $7,934) Shadow Layer Games LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.