Do I ship it?

Games › JRPG › JRPG + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological JRPG?

JRPG + Psychological

Of 22 developers who shipped a Psychological JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×481 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 43 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 43 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $59k → $12k → $6.7k → $2.9k → $3.9k → $1.2k → $2.2k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,167)
Top 5% $302k (exactly $301,798)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 79
Announced 43
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Choices Matter
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 3,358 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $300k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Digimon Survive 2022 · $5.6M Finding Paradise 2017 · $5.4M FATAL FRAME / PROJECT ZERO: Mask of the Lunar Eclipse 2023 · $2.4M The Test 2020 · $1.2M 他人世界末 On-looker 2020 · $737k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Digimon Survive older $59.99 3,124 78% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,622,263) HYDE, Inc.
Finding Paradise older $9.99 18,126 97% 544k $5.4M (exactly $5,432,362) Freebird Games
FATAL FRAME / PROJECT ZERO: Mask of the Lunar Eclipse older $49.99 1,597 89% 48k $2.4M (exactly $2,395,021) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
The Test older $1.99 19,599 96% 588k $1.2M (exactly $1,170,060) Randumb Studios
他人世界末 On-looker older $8.99 2,733 93% 82k $737k (exactly $737,090) 8A studio
The Caligula Effect 2 older $49.99 451 91% 14k $676k (exactly $676,365) historia Inc., FURYU Corporation
MONARK older $59.99 209 72% 6.3k $376k (exactly $376,137) FURYU Corporation
The NOexistenceN of Morphean Paradox : The Forest of Silver Shallots · EA $6.99 1,697 72% 51k $356k (exactly $355,861) 0x0Real Studio
Soul Touch $9.99 1,007 97% 30k $302k (exactly $301,798) URAYAHA.TECH
VARLET $59.99 121 47% 3.6k $218k (exactly $217,764) FURYU CORPORATION
BLUE REFLECTION Quartet $49.99 140 57% 4.2k $210k (exactly $209,958) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Star Knightess Aura $24.99 211 86% 6.3k $158k (exactly $158,187) AuraGamedev
Dig Night $3.99 110 99% 3.3k $13k (exactly $13,167) INUSHIT
Mind Control: Bloody Renaissance $9.99 29 100% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) BYYONI Entertainment
Little One $10.00 18 100% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,400) Tristan O.
Muffles' Life Sentence $11.99 12 100% 360 $4.3k (exactly $4,316) BossyPino
Sundy Stairway $9.99 13 69% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Yun Seven

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.