Do I ship it?

Games › JRPG › JRPG + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space JRPG?

JRPG + Space

Only 15 developers shipped a Space JRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $780k, ×1255 the market median. Revenue is up 620% on the market; 24 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 620% on the market, 24 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $178k → $4.8k → $179 → $599 → $5.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $141k (exactly $141,206)
Top 5% $788k (exactly $788,203)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 46
Announced 24
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 620% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 1,698 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $600, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $780k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

SD GUNDAM G GENERATION CROSS RAYS 2019 · $12M OPUS: Echo of Starsong - Full Bloom Edition 2021 · $6.5M STAR OCEAN THE SECOND STORY R 2023 · $4.8M STAR OCEAN THE DIVINE FORCE 2022 · $3.0M STAR OCEAN™ - THE LAST HOPE -™ 4K & Full HD Remaster 2017 · $983k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SD GUNDAM G GENERATION CROSS RAYS older $59.99 6,939 82% 208k $12M (exactly $12,488,118) TOM CREATE, 株式会社トムクリエイト
OPUS: Echo of Starsong - Full Bloom Edition older $24.99 8,722 96% 262k $6.5M (exactly $6,538,883) SIGONO INC.
STAR OCEAN THE SECOND STORY R older $49.99 3,229 92% 97k $4.8M (exactly $4,842,531) Square Enix, Gemdrops, Inc.
STAR OCEAN THE DIVINE FORCE older $59.99 1,679 67% 50k $3.0M (exactly $3,021,696) Square Enix, tri-Ace
STAR OCEAN™ - THE LAST HOPE -™ 4K & Full HD Remaster older $20.99 1,561 70% 47k $983k (exactly $982,962) Square Enix, tri-Ace
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
One Lonely Outpost $19.99 540 58% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) indie.io
LunarLux older $19.99 296 95% 8.9k $178k (exactly $177,511) CosmicNobab Games
EDENS ZERO $59.99 92 80% 2.8k $166k (exactly $165,572) KONAMI
Beyond Galaxyland $14.99 314 85% 9.4k $141k (exactly $141,206) Sam Enright
STARBITES $49.99 42 64% 1.3k $63k (exactly $62,987) IKINAGAMES
Shadow Among Nove $5.99 32 100% 960 $5.8k (exactly $5,750) Ohms, BlueBerry 藍莓社
Deepfried in Deepspace $4.99 16 100% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Medium Well Games
Night of the Stars $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Aldorlea Games
Super Star Adventure $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Peter Stubbs
Ternion · EA $12.99 1 0% 30 $390 (exactly $390) My Goody Unsafe Boar

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.