Should I ship a Crime JRPG?
JRPG + Crime
Only 13 developers shipped a Crime JRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Yakuza Kiwami 3 & Dark Ties, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $8.7k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.4M, ×3888 the market median. Revenue is up 1070% on the market; 16 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.1k (exactly $1,079) |
|---|---|
| Median | $8.7k (exactly $8,691) |
| Top 25% | $57k (exactly $56,569) |
| Top 5% | $2.4M (exactly $2,441,512) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 13 |
| Released games | 42 |
| Announced | 16 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1070% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- JRPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Combat, Dating Sim
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Funny
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 74% positive over 7,635 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Mystery DungeonStrong odds
- + NinjaFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + ManagementFair
- + Souls-likeFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + LootFair
- + RoguelikeFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
Comparable games
Persona 5 Royal 2022 · $165M 
Yakuza: Like a Dragon 2020 · $17M 
Like a Dragon Gaiden: The Man Who Erased His Name 2023 · $14M 
Yakuza 6: The Song of Life 2021 · $4.2M 
Yakuza Kiwami 3 & Dark Ties 2026 · $4.0M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Persona 5 Royal | older | $59.99 | 91,682 96% | 2.8M | $165M (exactly $165,000,095) | ATLUS |
| | Yakuza: Like a Dragon | older | $19.99 | 28,036 93% | 841k | $17M (exactly $16,813,189) | RGG Studio |
| | Like a Dragon Gaiden: The Man Who Erased His Name | older | $49.99 | 9,118 95% | 274k | $14M (exactly $13,674,265) | RGG Studio |
| | Yakuza 6: The Song of Life | older | $19.99 | 7,017 92% | 211k | $4.2M (exactly $4,208,095) | RGG Studio |
| | Yakuza Kiwami 3 & Dark Ties | $59.99 | 2,229 62% | 67k | $4.0M (exactly $4,011,531) | RGG Studio | |
 | Yakuza 5 Remastered | older | $19.99 | 6,199 88% | 186k | $3.7M (exactly $3,717,540) | RGG Studio |
 | Yakuza 4 Remastered | older | $19.99 | 5,657 91% | 170k | $3.4M (exactly $3,392,503) | RGG Studio |
 | Yakuza 0 Director's Cut | $49.99 | 1,628 80% | 49k | $2.4M (exactly $2,441,512) | RGG Studio | |
 | Peeping Dorm Manager | older | $10.99 | 6,206 92% | 186k | $2.0M (exactly $2,046,118) | HornyDoge |
 | Yakuza Kiwami | $19.99 | 1,334 82% | 40k | $800k (exactly $800,000) | RGG Studio | |
 | Yakuza Kiwami 2 | $19.99 | 1,135 82% | 34k | $681k (exactly $680,660) | RGG Studio | |
 | The Endless Abyss: A Busty Cop’s Corrupted Soul | $12.99 | 683 71% | 20k | $266k (exactly $266,165) | GiraffeLiam | |
 | Black Gold - Shining Town | $13.99 | 255 80% | 7.7k | $107k (exactly $107,024) | Morexingame | |
 | BM game Co. | $7.99 | 236 75% | 7.1k | $57k (exactly $56,569) | zzzgame | |
 | Neon Blood | $17.99 | 73 60% | 2.2k | $39k (exactly $39,398) | ChaoticBrain Studios | |
 | New Eromancer | $11.99 | 33 48% | 990 | $12k (exactly $11,870) | OneCoin | |
 | 搜查一刻 | $9.99 | 29 68% | 870 | $8.7k (exactly $8,691) | Yai |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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