Should I ship a Dragon JRPG?
JRPG + Dragons
Of 23 developers who shipped a Dragon JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $78k, ×124 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $7.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.5M, ×15140 the market median. Revenue is up 130% on the market; 35 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $7.8k (exactly $7,794) |
|---|---|
| Median | $78k (exactly $77,678) |
| Top 25% | $864k (exactly $863,827) |
| Top 5% | $9.5M (exactly $9,508,030) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 23 |
| Released games | 101 |
| Announced | 35 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $17.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 130% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- JRPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Turn-Based Combat
- Price point
- $17.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $17.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 24,722 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $7.8k. 5 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Mystery DungeonStrong odds
- + NinjaFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + ManagementFair
- + Souls-likeFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + LootFair
- + RoguelikeFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
Comparable games
MONSTER HUNTER RISE 2022 · $96M 
Granblue Fantasy: Relink 2024 · $49M 
Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen 2016 · $34M 
DRAGON BALL Z: KAKAROT 2020 · $26M 
ASTLIBRA Revision 2022 · $23M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | MONSTER HUNTER RISE | older | $39.99 | 79,847 84% | 2.4M | $96M (exactly $95,792,446) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | Granblue Fantasy: Relink | older | $39.99 | 41,227 89% | 1.2M | $49M (exactly $49,460,032) | Cygames, Inc. |
| | Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen | older | $29.99 | 37,437 88% | 1.1M | $34M (exactly $33,682,069) | Capcom |
| | DRAGON BALL Z: KAKAROT | older | $19.99 | 43,951 92% | 1.3M | $26M (exactly $26,357,415) | CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd. |
| | ASTLIBRA Revision | older | $24.99 | 30,262 95% | 908k | $23M (exactly $22,687,421) | KEIZO |
 | Monster Hunter Stories 2: Wings of Ruin | older | $39.99 | 11,845 82% | 355k | $14M (exactly $14,210,446) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
 | DRAGON QUEST® XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age™ - Definitive Edition | older | $39.99 | 10,446 92% | 313k | $13M (exactly $12,532,066) | Square Enix |
 | Monster Hunter Stories 3: Twisted Reflection | $69.99 | 5,605 77% | 168k | $12M (exactly $11,768,818) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
 | DragonSword : Awakening | $29.99 | 10,568 90% | 317k | $9.5M (exactly $9,508,030) | Hound13 Inc. | |
 | Word Game | older | $34.99 | 5,930 93% | 178k | $6.2M (exactly $6,224,721) | Team9 |
 | Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma | $59.99 | 2,947 88% | 88k | $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) | Marvelous Inc. | |
 | DRAGON QUEST VII Reimagined | $59.99 | 2,138 88% | 64k | $3.8M (exactly $3,847,759) | Square Enix, HEXADRIVE Inc. | |
 | The Nameless: Slay Dragon | $17.99 | 2,050 91% | 62k | $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) | The Nameless Epic | |
 | LUNAR Remastered Collection | $49.99 | 576 91% | 17k | $864k (exactly $863,827) | ASHIBI Co., Ltd., GAME ARTS Co., Ltd. | |
 | Wayblazer Dämmerung | $39.99 | 244 65% | 7.3k | $293k (exactly $292,727) | Eushully | |
 | Dragon Song Tavern: Cozy & Adventurous | $19.90 | 274 71% | 8.2k | $164k (exactly $163,578) | Etherous Games Limited | |
 | Beloved Rapture | $19.99 | 237 82% | 7.1k | $142k (exactly $142,129) | Rapturous Studio | |
 | Cladun X3 | $39.99 | 83 90% | 2.5k | $100k (exactly $99,575) | Nippon Ichi Software, Inc. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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