Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective JRPG?

JRPG + Detective

Of 29 developers who shipped a Detective JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.7k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×500 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 40 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 40 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $28k → $31k → $3.0k → $17k → $9.3k → $359 → $21k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $8.7k (exactly $8,691)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,979)
Top 5% $314k (exactly $313,756)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 92
Announced 40
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 4,181 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $8.7k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
Persona 4 Golden older $19.99 71,306 97% 2.1M $43M (exactly $42,762,208) ATLUS
Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition older $49.99 10,810 89% 324k $16M (exactly $16,211,757) h.a.n.d., Inc., Media.Vision Inc.
Master Detective Archives: RAIN CODE Plus older $29.99 2,142 80% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,927,157) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
RAIDOU Remastered: The Mystery of the Soulless Army $49.99 1,045 93% 31k $1.6M (exactly $1,567,186) ATLUS
The Test older $1.99 19,599 96% 588k $1.2M (exactly $1,170,060) Randumb Studios
Detective Girl of the Steam City older $14.99 1,894 91% 57k $852k (exactly $851,732) Clymenia
Spirit Hunter: Death Mark older $49.99 344 86% 10k $516k (exactly $515,897) EXPERIENCE
Trainee Death Simulator $5.99 1,746 92% 52k $314k (exactly $313,756) Bone Nail
MeteoriteFall $12.99 651 78% 20k $254k (exactly $253,695) ST studio
VARLET $59.99 121 47% 3.6k $218k (exactly $217,764) FURYU CORPORATION
Neon Blood $17.99 73 60% 2.2k $39k (exactly $39,398) ChaoticBrain Studios
Elton Manor: Requiem of the Cursed Roses $9.99 129 93% 3.9k $39k (exactly $38,661) 阿魯, Playmeow
久美子之死:昭和少女血色告白 $8.99 125 88% 3.8k $34k (exactly $33,712) LingVision Games
The Angel's Devil Tail - One More Question 2 $9.99 70 91% 2.1k $21k (exactly $20,979) 橘音
Salvation:Immortale $4.99 111 81% 3.3k $17k (exactly $16,617) 琉璃花糖制作组
Dig Night $3.99 110 99% 3.3k $13k (exactly $13,167) INUSHIT

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.