Should I ship a War JRPG?
JRPG + War
Of 24 developers who shipped a War JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $14k, ×22 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2313 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 25 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $3.2k (exactly $3,235) |
|---|---|
| Median | $14k (exactly $13,793) |
| Top 25% | $142k (exactly $142,129) |
| Top 5% | $1.5M (exactly $1,452,837) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 24 |
| Released games | 83 |
| Announced | 25 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $13.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- JRPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Tactical RPG, Turn-Based Combat
- Price point
- $13.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 3D, Emotional
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $13.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 5,015 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.3k. 6 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Mystery DungeonStrong odds
- + NinjaFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + ManagementFair
- + Souls-likeFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + LootFair
- + RoguelikeFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
Comparable games
Valkyria Chronicles 4 Complete Edition 2018 · $8.5M 
Valkyria Chronicles™ 2014 · $6.5M 
TRIANGLE STRATEGY 2022 · $5.8M 
Suikoden I&II HD Remaster Gate Rune and Dunan Unification Wars 2025 · $3.1M 
The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak 2023 · $2.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Valkyria Chronicles 4 Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 5,691 86% | 171k | $8.5M (exactly $8,534,793) | SEGA |
| | Valkyria Chronicles™ | older | $19.99 | 10,832 89% | 325k | $6.5M (exactly $6,495,950) | SEGA |
| | TRIANGLE STRATEGY | older | $59.99 | 3,239 78% | 97k | $5.8M (exactly $5,829,228) | Square Enix, ARTDINK |
| | Suikoden I&II HD Remaster Gate Rune and Dunan Unification Wars | $49.99 | 2,049 94% | 61k | $3.1M (exactly $3,072,885) | KONAMI | |
| | The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak | older | $59.99 | 1,172 91% | 35k | $2.1M (exactly $2,109,248) | Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH |
 | Lost Eidolons | older | $34.99 | 1,727 69% | 52k | $1.8M (exactly $1,812,832) | Ocean Drive Studio, Inc. |
 | FREEDOM WARS Remastered | $39.99 | 1,211 69% | 36k | $1.5M (exactly $1,452,837) | Dimps Corporation | |
 | Fuga: Melodies of Steel | older | $39.99 | 1,181 93% | 35k | $1.4M (exactly $1,416,846) | CyberConnect2 |
 | Fuga: Melodies of Steel 2 | older | $39.99 | 360 96% | 11k | $432k (exactly $431,892) | CyberConnect2 |
 | Long Gone Days | older | $24.99 | 468 88% | 14k | $351k (exactly $350,860) | This I Dreamt |
 | FAIRY TAIL 2 | $59.99 | 162 61% | 4.9k | $292k (exactly $291,551) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | Fuga: Melodies of Steel 3 | $39.99 | 220 89% | 6.6k | $264k (exactly $263,934) | CyberConnect2 | |
 | Breath of Fire IV | $9.99 | 605 74% | 18k | $181k (exactly $181,318) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com | |
 | Beloved Rapture | $19.99 | 237 82% | 7.1k | $142k (exactly $142,129) | Rapturous Studio | |
 | CREATION OF THE GODS: Rebellion at Five Passes | $14.99 | 222 89% | 6.7k | $100k (exactly $99,833) | TQGameStudio | |
 | STRANGER SAGA -Stranger Bach and Iskiyeld's Ambition- | $9.89 | 225 86% | 6.8k | $67k (exactly $66,758) | Retro Game Balance & Mechanics -レトロ… (Retro Game Balance & Mechanics -レトロゲームの手応えとバランスを追求するデザイン工房-) | |
 | KAMiBAKO - Mythology of Cube - | $29.99 | 37 64% | 1.1k | $33k (exactly $33,289) | GRAVITY GAME ARISE | |
 | TOUHOU RHAPSODY OF MOON RABBIT | · EA | $9.99 | 47 82% | 1.4k | $14k (exactly $14,086) | 瓦尔基里游戏 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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