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Should I ship a Martial-Arts JRPG?
JRPG + Martial Arts
Only 5 developers shipped a Martial-Arts JRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Yakuza Kiwami 3 & Dark Ties, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×8.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.
Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $47k against a market of $630. 16 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $18k (exactly $18,282) |
|---|---|
| Median | $47k (exactly $46,784) |
| Top 25% | $69k (exactly $68,931) |
| Top 5% | $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 5 |
| Released games | 42 |
| Announced | 16 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $19.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- JRPG
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Martial Arts
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- JRPG; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Action, RPG
- Price point
- $19.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
- Art
- 8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Funny, Story Rich
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $15.99.
The top 10 games average 77% positive over 72,640 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $19k. 16 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Mystery DungeonStrong odds
- + NinjaFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + ManagementFair
- + Souls-likeFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + LootFair
- + RoguelikeFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth | older | $69.99 | 16,339 90% | 490k | $34M (exactly $34,306,998) | RGG Studio |
| | Wo Long: Fallen Dynasty | older | $39.99 | 20,873 49% | 626k | $25M (exactly $25,041,338) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
| | Like a Dragon Gaiden: The Man Who Erased His Name | older | $49.99 | 9,118 95% | 274k | $14M (exactly $13,674,265) | RGG Studio |
| | Like a Dragon: Ishin! | older | $39.99 | 4,891 80% | 147k | $5.9M (exactly $5,867,733) | RGG Studio |
| | Yakuza 6: The Song of Life | older | $19.99 | 7,017 92% | 211k | $4.2M (exactly $4,208,095) | RGG Studio |
| | Yakuza Kiwami 3 & Dark Ties | $59.99 | 2,229 62% | 67k | $4.0M (exactly $4,011,531) | RGG Studio | |
| | Yakuza 4 Remastered | older | $19.99 | 5,657 91% | 170k | $3.4M (exactly $3,392,503) | RGG Studio |
| | Yakuza 0 Director's Cut | $49.99 | 1,628 80% | 49k | $2.4M (exactly $2,441,512) | RGG Studio | |
| | Shenmue I & II | older | $29.99 | 2,144 89% | 64k | $1.9M (exactly $1,928,957) | D3T |
| | 古剑奇谭二(GuJian2) | older | $15.99 | 2,744 76% | 82k | $1.3M (exactly $1,316,297) | 上海烛龙信息科技有限公司, Aurogon Shanghai |
| | Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage | $19.99 | 1,897 71% | 57k | $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) | RGG Studio | |
| | Yakuza Kiwami | $19.99 | 1,334 82% | 40k | $800k (exactly $800,000) | RGG Studio | |
| | Yakuza Kiwami 2 | $19.99 | 1,135 82% | 34k | $681k (exactly $680,660) | RGG Studio | |
| | Elder Ring | · EA | $9.99 | 230 40% | 6.9k | $69k (exactly $68,931) | Funny as Hell |
| | Class of Heroes 3 Remaster | $29.99 | 52 67% | 1.6k | $47k (exactly $46,784) | ACQUIRE Corp., Zerodiv | |
| | 神魔决之江湖行 | $9.99 | 61 81% | 1.8k | $18k (exactly $18,282) | 水狗工作室 | |
| | 武道传说 League of Fighters | $1.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $60 (exactly $60) | LINWENJIAN |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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