Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Martial Arts

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Martial-Arts JRPG?

JRPG + Martial Arts

Only 5 developers shipped a Martial-Arts JRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Yakuza Kiwami 3 & Dark Ties, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×8.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $47k against a market of $630. 16 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 74.5 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 16 announced, ×8.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Martial Arts
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for JRPG + Martial Arts: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $18k (exactly $18,282)
Median $47k (exactly $46,784)
Top 25% $69k (exactly $68,931)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 42
Announced 16
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Martial Arts
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Action, RPG
Price point
$19.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Funny, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $15.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 72,640 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $19k, median $47k, 1 in 4 over $68k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $19k. 16 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth older $69.99 16,339 90% 490k $34M (exactly $34,306,998) RGG Studio
Wo Long: Fallen Dynasty older $39.99 20,873 49% 626k $25M (exactly $25,041,338) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Like a Dragon Gaiden: The Man Who Erased His Name older $49.99 9,118 95% 274k $14M (exactly $13,674,265) RGG Studio
Like a Dragon: Ishin! older $39.99 4,891 80% 147k $5.9M (exactly $5,867,733) RGG Studio
Yakuza 6: The Song of Life older $19.99 7,017 92% 211k $4.2M (exactly $4,208,095) RGG Studio
Yakuza Kiwami 3 & Dark Ties $59.99 2,229 62% 67k $4.0M (exactly $4,011,531) RGG Studio
Yakuza 4 Remastered older $19.99 5,657 91% 170k $3.4M (exactly $3,392,503) RGG Studio
Yakuza 0 Director's Cut $49.99 1,628 80% 49k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,512) RGG Studio
Shenmue I & II older $29.99 2,144 89% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,928,957) D3T
古剑奇谭二(GuJian2) older $15.99 2,744 76% 82k $1.3M (exactly $1,316,297) 上海烛龙信息科技有限公司, Aurogon Shanghai
Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage $19.99 1,897 71% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) RGG Studio
Yakuza Kiwami $19.99 1,334 82% 40k $800k (exactly $800,000) RGG Studio
Yakuza Kiwami 2 $19.99 1,135 82% 34k $681k (exactly $680,660) RGG Studio
Elder Ring · EA $9.99 230 40% 6.9k $69k (exactly $68,931) Funny as Hell
Class of Heroes 3 Remaster $29.99 52 67% 1.6k $47k (exactly $46,784) ACQUIRE Corp., Zerodiv
神魔决之江湖行 $9.99 61 81% 1.8k $18k (exactly $18,282) 水狗工作室
武道传说 League of Fighters $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) LINWENJIAN

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.