Should I ship a Mech JRPG?
JRPG + Mechs
Only 9 developers shipped a Mech JRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak II, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $34k, ×53 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1917 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 16 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $3.0k (exactly $2,997) |
|---|---|
| Median | $34k (exactly $33,583) |
| Top 25% | $63k (exactly $62,987) |
| Top 5% | $1.2M (exactly $1,203,999) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 44 |
| Announced | 16 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $19.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 250% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- JRPG
- Price point
- $19.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 37,209 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 3 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Mystery DungeonStrong odds
- + NinjaFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + ManagementFair
- + Souls-likeFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + LootFair
- + RoguelikeFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
Comparable games
SD GUNDAM G GENERATION CROSS RAYS 2019 · $12M 
Super Robot Wars 30 2021 · $10M 
The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel 2017 · $6.2M 
Chained Echoes 2022 · $5.8M 
The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel III 2020 · $5.0M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | SD GUNDAM G GENERATION CROSS RAYS | older | $59.99 | 6,939 82% | 208k | $12M (exactly $12,488,118) | TOM CREATE, 株式会社トムクリエイト |
| | Super Robot Wars 30 | older | $59.99 | 5,608 85% | 168k | $10M (exactly $10,092,718) | Bandai Namco Forge Digitals Inc. |
| | The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel | older | $39.99 | 5,131 94% | 154k | $6.2M (exactly $6,155,661) | Nihon Falcom |
| | Chained Echoes | older | $24.99 | 7,713 88% | 231k | $5.8M (exactly $5,782,436) | Umami Tiger (Matthias Linda) |
| | The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel III | older | $59.99 | 2,770 92% | 83k | $5.0M (exactly $4,985,169) | Nihon Falcom, Engine Software BV, PH3 G… (Nihon Falcom, Engine Software BV, PH3 GmbH) |
 | The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel IV | older | $59.99 | 2,272 91% | 68k | $4.1M (exactly $4,088,918) | Nihon Falcom, Engine Software BV, PH3 G… (Nihon Falcom, Engine Software BV, PH3 GmbH) |
 | The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel II | older | $39.99 | 2,746 92% | 82k | $3.3M (exactly $3,294,376) | Nihon Falcom |
 | Star Renegades | older | $24.99 | 2,673 82% | 80k | $2.0M (exactly $2,003,948) | Massive Damage, Inc. |
 | The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak II | $59.99 | 669 83% | 20k | $1.2M (exactly $1,203,999) | Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH | |
 | MEGATON MUSASHI W: WIRED | older | $49.99 | 688 78% | 21k | $1.0M (exactly $1,031,794) | LEVEL5 Inc. |
 | FRONT MISSION 3: Remake | $34.99 | 453 74% | 14k | $476k (exactly $475,514) | MegaPixel Studio S.A. | |
 | STARBITES | $49.99 | 42 64% | 1.3k | $63k (exactly $62,987) | IKINAGAMES | |
 | Steel Century Groove | $19.99 | 98 94% | 2.9k | $59k (exactly $58,771) | Sloth Gloss Games | |
 | Dosa Divas | $19.99 | 56 94% | 1.7k | $34k (exactly $33,583) | Outerloop Games | |
 | Granser - Act 1 | $9.99 | 21 100% | 630 | $6.3k (exactly $6,294) | Steve Gal | |
 | Elohim Eternal II: Son of Man | $9.99 | 10 100% | 300 | $3.0k (exactly $2,997) | George Alexandros | |
 | Oath of Steel | $18.99 | 4 0% | 120 | $2.3k (exactly $2,279) | Ling Jun | |
 | Reditus: Ashes of Heremus | $9.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $300 (exactly $300) | Jericho Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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