Do I ship it?

Games › JRPG › JRPG + Mythology

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mythological JRPG?

JRPG + Mythology

Of 35 developers who shipped a Mythological JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×8.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×3209 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 42 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 42 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Mythology
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $44k → $5.2k → $1.5k → $1.9k → $22k → $16k → $839 (still earning) → $5.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Mythology: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $839 (exactly $839)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Top 25% $73k (exactly $73,485)
Top 5% $2.0M (exactly $2,015,524)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 96
Announced 42
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Mythology
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Adventure
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 23,110 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $73k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Digimon Story Time Stranger 2025 · $33M ASTLIBRA Revision 2022 · $23M WARRIORS OROCHI 4 2018 · $8.0M Shin Megami Tensei III Nocturne HD Remaster 2021 · $6.0M Okami HD 2017 · $4.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Digimon Story Time Stranger $69.99 15,845 89% 475k $33M (exactly $33,269,746) Media.Vision Inc.
ASTLIBRA Revision older $24.99 30,262 95% 908k $23M (exactly $22,687,421) KEIZO
WARRIORS OROCHI 4 older $59.99 4,424 85% 133k $8.0M (exactly $7,961,873) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Shin Megami Tensei III Nocturne HD Remaster older $49.99 3,989 87% 120k $6.0M (exactly $5,982,303) ATLUS
Okami HD older $19.99 8,226 92% 247k $4.9M (exactly $4,933,132) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Yog-Sothoth’s Yard older $10.99 10,207 93% 306k $3.4M (exactly $3,365,248) Bone Nail
Aethermancer · EA $25.99 2,585 91% 78k $2.0M (exactly $2,015,524) moi rai games
VALKYRIE ELYSIUM older $59.99 1,021 61% 31k $1.8M (exactly $1,837,494) Square Enix, Soleil Ltd.
Rebellion GODSOUL: Awakening · EA $17.99 2,458 85% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) U-Secret Studio
Mysteria ~Occult Shadows~ older $12.99 3,196 64% 96k $1.2M (exactly $1,245,481) U-Secret Studio
Mirai's Midnight Stream $15.99 627 84% 19k $301k (exactly $300,772) Fox House
緋月仙行錄 $19.99 454 57% 14k $272k (exactly $272,264) 月光草
绯红编年史 ~ Chronicle of Scarlet ~ $12.99 697 88% 21k $272k (exactly $271,621) Charge Piggy Studio
Utawarerumono: ZAN 2 $39.99 88 82% 2.6k $106k (exactly $105,574) AQUAPLUS
Utawarerumono: ZAN $39.99 85 77% 2.6k $102k (exactly $101,974) AQUAPLUS
CREATION OF THE GODS: Rebellion at Five Passes $14.99 222 89% 6.7k $100k (exactly $99,833) TQGameStudio
Touhou Spell Carnival $49.99 49 77% 1.5k $73k (exactly $73,485) Idea Factory, Compile Heart, STING

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.