Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic JRPG?

JRPG + Futuristic

Of 35 developers who shipped a Futuristic JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $2.3M, ×3746 the market median. Revenue is up 130% on the market; 65 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 130% on the market, 65 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $18k → $236k → $6.0k → $14k → $2.6k → $8.1k → $11k (still earning) → $4.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,296)
Top 25% $141k (exactly $141,206)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,352,208)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 124
Announced 65
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 130% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Anime, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 65% positive over 11,493 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $2.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SCARLET NEXUS older $59.99 13,749 81% 412k $25M (exactly $24,744,075) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
ASTLIBRA Revision older $24.99 30,262 95% 908k $23M (exactly $22,687,421) KEIZO
Echoes of Aincrad $69.99 4,108 47% 123k $8.6M (exactly $8,625,568) Game Studio Inc.
FINAL FANTASY® XIII older $15.99 16,314 74% 489k $7.8M (exactly $7,825,826) Square Enix
Soul Hackers 2 older $59.99 2,300 65% 69k $4.1M (exactly $4,139,310) ATLUS
Eternights older $29.99 3,046 85% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,740,486) Studio Sai
Lost Soul Aside™ $59.99 1,307 59% 39k $2.4M (exactly $2,352,208) Ultizero Games
The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak older $59.99 1,172 91% 35k $2.1M (exactly $2,109,248) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
Star Renegades older $24.99 2,673 82% 80k $2.0M (exactly $2,003,948) Massive Damage, Inc.
Disgaea 7: Vows of the Virtueless older $59.99 913 74% 27k $1.6M (exactly $1,643,126) Nippon Ichi Software, Inc., Systemsoft… (Nippon Ichi Software, Inc., Systemsoft beta, Inc.)
FREEDOM WARS Remastered $39.99 1,211 69% 36k $1.5M (exactly $1,452,837) Dimps Corporation
LumenTale: Memories of Trey $24.99 1,130 70% 34k $847k (exactly $847,161) Beehive Studios
FANTASIAN Neo Dimension $49.99 500 76% 15k $750k (exactly $749,850) Mistwalker Corporation
Endless Alice · EA $8.99 2,307 91% 69k $622k (exactly $622,198) HowlingRain, 台灣響雨互娛, 響雨@OSAKA
FRONT MISSION 3: Remake $34.99 453 74% 14k $476k (exactly $475,514) MegaPixel Studio S.A.
VARLET $59.99 121 47% 3.6k $218k (exactly $217,764) FURYU CORPORATION
Beyond Galaxyland $14.99 314 85% 9.4k $141k (exactly $141,206) Sam Enright
STARBITES $49.99 42 64% 1.3k $63k (exactly $62,987) IKINAGAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.