Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI JRPG?

JRPG + Artificial Intelligence

Of 25 developers who shipped an AI JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×6.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $360. Revenue is up 1275% on the market; 21 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 1275% on the market, 21 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.4k → $82k → $1.0k (still earning) → $4.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $4.0k (exactly $4,046)
Top 25% $52k (exactly $51,548)
Top 5% $23M (exactly $23,474,646)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 51
Announced 21
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1275% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Action RPG
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 195,367 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $51k, 1 in 20 over $23M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Resource ManagementFair36 devs · median $2.7k · 27 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road $69.99 11,180 88% 335k $23M (exactly $23,474,646) LEVEL5 Inc.
SWORD ART ONLINE Last Recollection older $59.99 450 58% 14k $810k (exactly $809,865) AQURIA Co., Ltd.
Happy Island Fantasy $14.99 1,186 88% 36k $533k (exactly $533,344) HappyCreator
ALTDEUS: Beyond Chronos older $29.99 379 95% 11k $341k (exactly $340,986) MyDearest Inc.
Three Fairies' Hoppin' Flappin' Great Journey! older $17.99 189 84% 5.7k $102k (exactly $102,003) yomogi_soft
Warrior of Lust $11.99 255 79% 7.7k $92k (exactly $91,724) Aerisetta
Femtazio $9.99 304 81% 9.1k $91k (exactly $91,109) Aerisetta
Lythia: Sigil of Lust $24.99 109 75% 3.3k $82k (exactly $81,717) capture 1
Orgasm Lab Simulator 💦🍌 $14.99 119 69% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) BanzaiProject
Nobody Nowhere $9.99 172 93% 5.2k $52k (exactly $51,548) 深渊标记 Tag:hadal
ENCOUNTER BARⅡ $2.99 294 69% 8.8k $26k (exactly $26,372) 2R LTD
The Lustful Inn of Female Adventurers $9.99 81 76% 2.4k $24k (exactly $24,276) StudioVR

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.