Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian JRPG?

JRPG + Lovecraftian

Only 11 developers shipped a Lovecraftian JRPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, BLACK SOULS, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.0M, ×4903 the market median. Revenue is up 130% on the market; 30 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 130% on the market, 30 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for JRPG + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,984)
Top 5% $3.1M (exactly $3,079,339)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 42
Announced 30
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $13.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 130% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG
Price point
$13.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 14,138 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $3.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fear & Hunger 2: Termina older $11.99 14,232 97% 427k $5.1M (exactly $5,119,250) Miro Haverinen
Fear & Hunger older $7.99 20,881 94% 626k $5.0M (exactly $5,005,176) Miro Haverinen
Impostor Factory older $9.99 11,967 95% 359k $3.6M (exactly $3,586,510) Freebird Games
Yog-Sothoth’s Yard older $10.99 10,207 93% 306k $3.4M (exactly $3,365,248) Bone Nail
BLACK SOULS $13.99 7,337 95% 220k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,339) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
BLACK SOULS II $13.99 5,277 97% 158k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,757) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
Welcome to Elderfield $17.99 1,334 87% 40k $720k (exactly $719,960) Chris Cote
Cthulhu Saves the World older $2.99 3,001 92% 90k $269k (exactly $269,190) Zeboyd Digital Entertainment LLC
Cthulhu Saves Christmas older $9.99 293 90% 8.8k $88k (exactly $87,812) Zeboyd Digital Entertainment LLC
Evening Starter older $14.99 142 79% 4.3k $64k (exactly $63,857) baron sengia
Night of The Black Goat $19.99 55 83% 1.7k $33k (exactly $32,984) サークルREN
Yunashi no Yume $14.99 58 87% 1.7k $26k (exactly $26,083) The Yunashi Archive
RAVENSBURG $14.99 45 95% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) Lilian Duleroux
Signal Creek $7.99 13 100% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) snacktime games
OCEANIDES of the World's End: Legend of the Big-Breasted Swimsuit Beauty Guardian $8.99 8 25% 240 $2.2k (exactly $2,158) TIFON STUDIO EIROS
NECRONOMICAT $4.99 10 100% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) GROOVY GORY GAMES
Uncanny Valley: Le Petit Morte $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Chris King

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.