Do I ship it?

Games › JRPG › JRPG + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval JRPG?

JRPG + Medieval

Of 164 developers who shipped a Medieval JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 196 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.9k, ×7.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $530k, ×856 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 196 games are announced against 86 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 196 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 164
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.8k → $3.8k → $899 → $5.4k → $8.4k → $2.4k → $4.0k (still earning) → $7.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 164
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,169)
Median $4.9k (exactly $4,947)
Top 25% $32k (exactly $31,555)
Top 5% $538k (exactly $537,671)
Developers, 2 yr 164
Released games 444
Announced 196
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Exploration, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 21,985 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $4.9k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $530k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 94 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 196 games are announced against 86 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Nioh 2 – The Complete Edition 2021 · $51M Volcano Princess 2023 · $15M FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles 2025 · $8.5M FINAL FANTASY IX 2016 · $7.8M Romancing SaGa 2: Revenge of the Seven 2024 · $5.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Nioh 2 – The Complete Edition older $49.99 33,892 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,827,832) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Volcano Princess older $10.99 45,019 97% 1.4M $15M (exactly $14,842,764) 养蛋人 Egg Hatcher
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
FINAL FANTASY IX older $20.99 12,447 95% 373k $7.8M (exactly $7,837,876) Square Enix
Romancing SaGa 2: Revenge of the Seven $49.99 3,921 93% 118k $5.9M (exactly $5,880,324) Square Enix, xeen Inc.
OCTOPATH TRAVELER 0 $49.99 2,873 78% 86k $4.3M (exactly $4,308,638) Square Enix, DOKIDOKI GROOVE WORKS
Suikoden I&II HD Remaster Gate Rune and Dunan Unification Wars $49.99 2,049 94% 61k $3.1M (exactly $3,072,885) KONAMI
Felvidek older $10.99 5,576 98% 167k $1.8M (exactly $1,838,407) Jozef Pavelka, Vlado Ganaj
VALKYRIE ELYSIUM older $59.99 1,021 61% 31k $1.8M (exactly $1,837,494) Square Enix, Soleil Ltd.
Phoenotopia: Awakening older $19.99 2,755 82% 83k $1.7M (exactly $1,652,173) Cape Cosmic
Lost Eidolons: Veil of the Witch $24.99 1,293 81% 39k $969k (exactly $969,362) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
BRAVELY DEFAULT FLYING FAIRY HD Remaster $39.99 803 91% 24k $963k (exactly $963,359) Square Enix, Cattle Call Inc.
Dice Gambit $24.99 1,080 87% 32k $810k (exactly $809,676) Chromatic Ink
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
Crusaders Quest : Hero Town $6.99 2,564 76% 77k $538k (exactly $537,671) CQ LABS
Jerez's Arena Ⅲ $19.99 613 89% 18k $368k (exactly $367,616) WorkNite Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.