Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian JRPG?

JRPG + Dystopian

Of 26 developers who shipped a Dystopian JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×3.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×215 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 48 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 48 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $177k → $3.0k → $101k → $2.0k → $6.3k → $300 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $2.0k (exactly $2,030)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,196)
Top 5% $135k (exactly $134,932)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 75
Announced 48
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Multiple Endings, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 1,964 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 48 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shin Megami Tensei III Nocturne HD Remaster older $49.99 3,989 87% 120k $6.0M (exactly $5,982,303) ATLUS
FREEDOM WARS Remastered $39.99 1,211 69% 36k $1.5M (exactly $1,452,837) Dimps Corporation
Cavalry Girls older $11.99 1,877 88% 56k $675k (exactly $675,157) 中子星游戏研究所
METAL MAX Xeno Reborn older $39.99 444 65% 13k $533k (exactly $532,667) 24Frame,inc.
FINAL FANTASY VII older $11.99 1,464 74% 44k $527k (exactly $526,601) Square Enix, FINE Co., Ltd.
Jack Move older $19.99 813 80% 24k $488k (exactly $487,556) So Romantic
Long Gone Days older $24.99 468 88% 14k $351k (exactly $350,860) This I Dreamt
Black & White older $14.99 612 71% 18k $275k (exactly $275,216) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Mary Skelter Finale older $49.99 118 70% 3.5k $177k (exactly $176,965) Compile Heart, Idea Factory, Ghostlight… (Compile Heart, Idea Factory, Ghostlight LTD)
Keylocker | Turn Based Cyberpunk Action $19.99 225 84% 6.8k $135k (exactly $134,932) Moonana
Sonny Legacy Collection $9.99 337 91% 10k $101k (exactly $100,999) Krin Juangbhanich
Yunashi no Yume $14.99 58 87% 1.7k $26k (exactly $26,083) The Yunashi Archive
Magical Massage $11.99 46 93% 1.4k $17k (exactly $16,546) Pop Elephant Studio
Work Life Balance $8.99 33 96% 990 $8.9k (exactly $8,900) LandUni Studio
G-MODEアーカイブス+ DIGITAL DEVIL SAGA アバタール・チューナー A's TEST Server完全版 $15.99 15 93% 450 $7.2k (exactly $7,196) G-MODE, ATLUS
Fractured Core $14.99 14 78% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Engram Interactive
EMIT:Embrace Beyond Time $8.99 15 93% 450 $4.0k (exactly $4,046) LuLuLuna Studio
Elohim Eternal II: Son of Man $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) George Alexandros

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.