Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror JRPG?

JRPG + Psychological Horror

Of 55 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 119 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.9k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2215 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 119 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 119 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $31k → $44k → $2.1k → $21k → $8.7k → $9.3k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $6.9k (exactly $6,920)
Top 25% $32k (exactly $31,768)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,390,922)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 235
Announced 119
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Multiple Endings, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 24,499 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $6.9k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 6 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 119 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
OMORI older $19.99 79,836 97% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,877,649) OMOCAT, LLC
CODE VEIN II $69.99 5,193 66% 156k $11M (exactly $10,903,742) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
LISA: The Painful older $19.99 13,129 95% 394k $7.9M (exactly $7,873,461) Dingaling Productions
Living With Sister: Monochrome Fantasy older $12.99 15,119 69% 454k $5.9M (exactly $5,891,874) Inusuku
Fear & Hunger 2: Termina older $11.99 14,232 97% 427k $5.1M (exactly $5,119,250) Miro Haverinen
Fear & Hunger older $7.99 20,881 94% 626k $5.0M (exactly $5,005,176) Miro Haverinen
Karryn's Prison older $29.99 4,414 95% 132k $4.0M (exactly $3,971,276) Remtairy
Impostor Factory older $9.99 11,967 95% 359k $3.6M (exactly $3,586,510) Freebird Games
Cyberdimension Neptunia: 4 Goddesses Online older $29.99 3,928 87% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,534,022) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, TAMSOFT
BLACK SOULS $13.99 7,337 95% 220k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,339) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
BLACK SOULS II $13.99 5,277 97% 158k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,757) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
OFF $14.99 3,093 95% 93k $1.4M (exactly $1,390,922) Mortis Ghost, Fangamer
The NOexistenceN of Morphean Paradox : The Forest of Silver Shallots · EA $6.99 1,697 72% 51k $356k (exactly $355,861) 0x0Real Studio
Fuga: Melodies of Steel 3 $39.99 220 89% 6.6k $264k (exactly $263,934) CyberConnect2
Lustful Dead 🔞 $9.99 267 49% 8.0k $80k (exactly $80,020) BanzaiProject
Guardian of the Sacred Seal $19.99 123 96% 3.7k $74k (exactly $73,763) STUDIO SPUTNIK
The seven days i spent with you $1.99 1,162 93% 35k $69k (exactly $69,371) RErevue_studio
Throne of Monsters 怪物的王座 $12.99 130 92% 3.9k $51k (exactly $50,661) 雏形游戏

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.