Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical game?

Historical

Of 1,048 developers who shipped a Historical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,785 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2190 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 1,785 games are announced against 624 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 1,785 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,048
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $4.5k → $5.4k → $4.4k → $4.9k → $2.7k → $2.3k (still earning) → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,048
Bottom 30% $598 (exactly $598)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $34,183)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,375,225)
Developers, 2 yr 1,048
Released games 3,897
Announced 1,785
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 370,083 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 581 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,785 games are announced against 624 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Historical

142 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Dating Sim + Historical Fair $27k 39 devs
  2. God Game + Historical Fair $12k 19 devs
  3. Automation + Historical Fair $7.9k 26 devs
  4. Tanks + Historical Fair $5.4k 25 devs
  5. Grid-Based Movement + Historical Fair $3.0k 22 devs
  6. Sports + Historical Fair $2.1k 20 devs
  7. Idler + Historical Fair $1.5k 30 devs
  8. Board Game + Historical Fair $1.3k 60 devs
  9. Tabletop + Historical Fair $1.3k 57 devs
  10. Incremental + Historical Fair $1.2k 47 devs
  11. Local Multiplayer + Historical Fair $898 33 devs
  12. Mystery Dungeon + Historical Fair $719 7 devs
  13. Real-Time with Pause + Historical Poor odds $124k 14 devs
  14. Diplomacy + Historical Poor odds $79k 50 devs
  15. 4X + Historical Poor odds $61k 49 devs
  16. Turn-Based + Historical Poor odds $61k 23 devs
  17. City Builder + Historical Poor odds $60k 86 devs
  18. Colony Sim + Historical Poor odds $59k 42 devs
  19. Base Building + Historical Poor odds $58k 81 devs
  20. Open World + Historical Poor odds $58k 99 devs
  21. Real-Time + Historical Poor odds $52k 10 devs
  22. Sandbox + Historical Poor odds $52k 125 devs
  23. FMV + Historical Poor odds $45k 15 devs
  24. Building + Historical Poor odds $33k 106 devs
  25. Spectacle fighter + Historical Poor odds $33k 16 devs
  26. Online Co-Op + Historical Poor odds $33k 30 devs
  27. Vehicular Combat + Historical Poor odds $32k 16 devs
  28. RTS + Historical Poor odds $30k 108 devs
  29. Action RTS + Historical Poor odds $29k 26 devs
  30. Destruction + Historical Poor odds $26k 15 devs
  31. Farming Sim + Historical Poor odds $24k 15 devs
  32. Real Time Tactics + Historical Poor odds $19k 88 devs
  33. Life Sim + Historical Poor odds $18k 49 devs
  34. Level Editor + Historical Poor odds $18k 17 devs
  35. Co-op + Historical Poor odds $17k 36 devs
  36. Management + Historical Poor odds $14k 181 devs
  37. Economy + Historical Poor odds $14k 145 devs
  38. Grand Strategy + Historical Poor odds $13k 118 devs
  39. Fighting + Historical Poor odds $13k 9 devs
  40. Tactical + Historical Poor odds $9.9k 159 devs
  41. Stealth + Historical Poor odds $9.6k 32 devs
  42. Procedural Generation + Historical Poor odds $9.4k 39 devs
  43. JRPG + Historical Poor odds $9.4k 20 devs
  44. Investigation + Historical Poor odds $9.0k 64 devs
  45. Survival + Historical Poor odds $8.9k 79 devs
  46. Simulation + Historical Poor odds $8.5k 404 devs
  47. Crafting + Historical Poor odds $8.5k 52 devs
  48. Naval Combat + Historical Poor odds $8.5k 24 devs
  49. Immersive Sim + Historical Poor odds $8.3k 111 devs
  50. Tactical RPG + Historical Poor odds $7.7k 48 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Battlefield™ V 2020 · $355M Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord 2022 · $346M Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord older $49.99 230,490 87% 6.9M $346M (exactly $345,665,853) TaleWorlds Entertainment
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
Battlefield™ 1 older $39.99 200,661 86% 6.0M $241M (exactly $240,733,002) DICE
Assassin's Creed® Origins older $59.99 119,764 85% 3.6M $216M (exactly $215,539,271) Ubisoft Montreal
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition older $34.99 158,931 94% 4.8M $167M (exactly $166,829,871) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive)
Hell Let Loose older $49.99 99,628 83% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,412,112) Expression Games
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
The Blood of Dawnwalker $69.99 15,789 86% 474k $33M (exactly $33,152,163) Rebel Wolves
Mafia: The Old Country $49.99 20,909 71% 627k $31M (exactly $31,357,227) Hangar 13
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.