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Should I ship a Historical Management game?
Management + Historical
Of 181 developers who shipped a Historical Management game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 321 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $14k, ×23 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.4M, ×5501 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 321 games are announced against 123 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.3k (exactly $2,336) |
|---|---|
| Median | $14k (exactly $14,391) |
| Top 25% | $156k (exactly $155,922) |
| Top 5% | $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 181 |
| Released games | 532 |
| Announced | 321 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $12.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Management
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Historical
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Management; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Economy
- Price point
- $12.99 typical · top 25% priced $32.00 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $32.00 or above; the middle game at $12.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 101,767 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 6 in 10 of the 71 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 321 games are announced against 123 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Management with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RomeFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + WesternFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + JRPGFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + UnderwaterFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + 3D FighterFair
- + IncrementalFair
Comparable games
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M 
Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M 
Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M 
Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M 
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition 2021 · $87M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI | older | $59.99 | 276,113 86% | 8.3M | $497M (exactly $496,920,566) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
| | Crusader Kings III | older | $49.99 | 94,615 90% | 2.8M | $142M (exactly $141,894,116) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Europa Universalis IV | older | $49.99 | 94,114 87% | 2.8M | $141M (exactly $141,142,766) | Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto) |
| | Manor Lords | · EA older | $39.99 | 76,884 84% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $92,237,735) | Slavic Magic |
| | Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition | older | $39.99 | 72,275 85% | 2.2M | $87M (exactly $86,708,318) | World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios) |
 | Victoria 3 | older | $49.99 | 41,251 71% | 1.2M | $62M (exactly $61,864,125) | Paradox Development Studio |
 | Anno 1800 | older | $59.99 | 29,854 81% | 896k | $54M (exactly $53,728,244) | Ubisoft Mainz |
 | Medieval Dynasty | older | $34.99 | 43,074 90% | 1.3M | $45M (exactly $45,214,778) | Render Cube |
 | HUMANKIND™ | older | $49.99 | 22,165 68% | 665k | $33M (exactly $33,240,850) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Against the Storm | older | $29.99 | 33,271 94% | 998k | $30M (exactly $29,933,919) | Eremite Games |
 | Farthest Frontier | $34.99 | 24,444 86% | 733k | $26M (exactly $25,658,867) | Crate Entertainment | |
 | Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era | · EA | $39.99 | 19,251 86% | 578k | $23M (exactly $23,095,425) | Unfrozen |
 | Anno 117: Pax Romana | $59.99 | 12,150 69% | 365k | $22M (exactly $21,866,355) | Ubisoft Mainz | |
 | Going Medieval | $29.99 | 17,032 88% | 511k | $15M (exactly $15,323,690) | Foxy Voxel | |
 | Terra Invicta | $39.99 | 9,057 80% | 272k | $11M (exactly $10,865,683) | Pavonis Interactive | |
 | Sengoku Dynasty | $29.99 | 6,592 74% | 198k | $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822) | Superkami | |
 | ENDLESS Legend™ 2 | · EA | $49.99 | 2,476 83% | 74k | $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Corsair Cove | $39.99 | 3,026 85% | 91k | $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) | Limbic Entertainment | |
 | Cataclismo | $29.99 | 3,899 88% | 117k | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) | Digital Sun | |
 | Master of Command | $29.99 | 3,840 92% | 115k | $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848) | Armchair Interactive |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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