Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Historical

Of 48 developers who shipped a Historical Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 105 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.7k, ×12 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2240 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 105 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 105 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $1.8k → $54k → $15k → $179k → $5.9k → $3.8k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $7.7k (exactly $7,675)
Top 25% $114k (exactly $114,262)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 160
Announced 105
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Strategy RPG
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $28.00 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $28.00 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 15,058 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $7.7k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 105 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kingdom Heroes 8 older $29.99 12,793 55% 384k $12M (exactly $11,509,862) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
Expeditions: Rome older $44.99 5,156 86% 155k $7.0M (exactly $6,959,053) Logic Artists
Partisans 1941 older $29.99 7,531 82% 226k $6.8M (exactly $6,775,641) Alter Games
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
Banner of the Maid older $16.99 6,580 86% 197k $3.4M (exactly $3,353,826) Azure Flame Studio
Expeditions: Viking older $29.99 3,293 82% 99k $3.0M (exactly $2,962,712) Logic Artists
江湖十一 older $17.99 5,385 42% 162k $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) 万象皆春
NORSE: Oath of Blood $34.99 2,535 56% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,660,990) Arctic Hazard
Lost Eidolons older $34.99 1,727 69% 52k $1.8M (exactly $1,812,832) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Three Kingdoms Mushouden $24.99 1,876 72% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437) NanBei Studio
Burden of Command™ $24.99 628 83% 19k $471k (exactly $470,812) Green Tree Games LLC
Huaxia: Warring States · EA $19.99 701 61% 21k $420k (exactly $420,390) 秦川汉渚
The Three Kingdoms: The Tales of Jian An $17.99 690 88% 21k $372k (exactly $372,393) 开翼网络
The End of History · EA $28.00 366 68% 11k $307k (exactly $307,440) Tatamibeya
Trench Lord: Eastern Front $11.99 774 83% 23k $278k (exactly $278,408) Tracer Studio, LING YUN CO.,LTD.
Never Second in Rome $12.99 637 81% 19k $248k (exactly $248,239) Alessandro Roberti
The Stone of Madness $29.99 199 77% 6.0k $179k (exactly $179,040) The Game Kitchen

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.