Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Economy game?

Economy + Historical

Of 145 developers who shipped a Historical Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 246 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $14k, ×23 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.3M, ×10148 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 246 games are announced against 99 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 22.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 246 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 145
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $31k → $120k → $67k → $34k → $17k → $64k → $7.9k (still earning) → $8.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 145
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,156)
Median $14k (exactly $14,391)
Top 25% $131k (exactly $131,290)
Top 5% $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012)
Developers, 2 yr 145
Released games 386
Announced 246
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Management
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 168,205 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.2k, median $14k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $6.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.2k. 6 in 10 of the 54 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 246 games are announced against 99 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crusader Kings III older $49.99 94,615 90% 2.8M $142M (exactly $141,894,116) Paradox Development Studio
Europa Universalis IV older $49.99 94,114 87% 2.8M $141M (exactly $141,142,766) Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto)
Sid Meier's Civilization® V older $29.99 128,186 95% 3.8M $115M (exactly $115,328,944) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Victoria 3 older $49.99 41,251 71% 1.2M $62M (exactly $61,864,125) Paradox Development Studio
Anno 1800 older $59.99 29,854 81% 896k $54M (exactly $53,728,244) Ubisoft Mainz
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
Against the Storm older $29.99 33,271 94% 998k $30M (exactly $29,933,919) Eremite Games
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic older $39.99 24,825 91% 745k $30M (exactly $29,782,552) 3Division
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Terra Invicta $39.99 9,057 80% 272k $11M (exactly $10,865,683) Pavonis Interactive
Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition $19.99 10,627 92% 319k $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) Firefly Studios
ENDLESS Legend™ 2 · EA $49.99 2,476 83% 74k $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) AMPLITUDE Studios
Corsair Cove $39.99 3,026 85% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Limbic Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.