Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Crafting game?

Crafting + Historical

Of 52 developers who shipped a Historical Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 134 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.5k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.9M, ×9444 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 134 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 134 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 52
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.5k → $5.1k → $12k → $20k → $7.2k → $5.4k → $18k (still earning) → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 52
Bottom 30% $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Median $8.5k (exactly $8,544)
Top 25% $62k (exactly $62,338)
Top 5% $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822)
Developers, 2 yr 52
Released games 158
Announced 134
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 49,672 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.7k, median $8.5k, 1 in 4 over $62k, 1 in 20 over $5.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 6 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 134 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Medieval Dynasty older $34.99 43,074 90% 1.3M $45M (exactly $45,214,778) Render Cube
Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator older $19.99 37,870 92% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,710,639) niceplay games
Titan Quest II · EA $34.99 17,398 81% 522k $18M (exactly $18,262,681) Grimlore Games
Kingdoms and Castles older $19.99 30,311 93% 909k $18M (exactly $18,177,507) Lion Shield, LLC
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey older $39.99 9,794 81% 294k $12M (exactly $11,749,862) Panache Digital Games
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
Sengoku Dynasty $29.99 6,592 74% 198k $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822) Superkami
Tavern Master older $14.99 12,613 92% 378k $5.7M (exactly $5,672,066) Untitled Studio
Life is Feudal: Your Own older $19.99 8,804 65% 264k $5.3M (exactly $5,279,759) Bitbox Ltd.
News Tower $24.99 4,316 94% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,235,705) Sparrow Night
Saloon Simulator · EA $18.99 860 89% 26k $490k (exactly $489,942) Glivi Games S.A.
Alaska Gold Fever $16.99 959 79% 29k $489k (exactly $488,802) Baked Games
Masters of Albion · EA $24.99 607 64% 18k $455k (exactly $455,068) 22cans
Halcyon Days at Taoyuan $11.99 1,089 89% 33k $392k (exactly $391,713) BotanX
Chinese Frontiers $24.99 514 72% 15k $385k (exactly $385,346) SolidGames
Summa Expeditionis $19.99 305 68% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Lobico Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.