Do I ship it?

GamesIdlerIdler + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Idler?

Idler + Historical

Of 30 developers who shipped a Historical Idler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $600. Revenue is up 395% on the market; 36 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 395% on the market, 36 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Idler + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $202k → $3.4k → $239 → $1.8k → $1.8k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Idler + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $3.4k (exactly $3,352)
Top 5% $99k (exactly $98,769)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 65
Announced 36
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 395% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Idler; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, Economy, Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Hand-drawn, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 2,493 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $3.3k, 1 in 20 over $98k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. All of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Idler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds10 devs · median $36k · 10 announced
  2. + FarmingStrong odds33 devs · median $5.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashFair32 devs · median $6.4k · 50 announced
  4. + DrivingFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  5. + LootFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  6. + FPSFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  7. + Turn-Based CombatFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  8. + Turn-Based StrategyFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair16 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyFair83 devs · median $2.9k · 128 announced
  11. + CapitalismFair205 devs · median $2.9k · 260 announced
  12. + SwordplayFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced

All 177 pairs on the Idler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ages of Conflict: World War Simulator · EA older $6.99 8,904 96% 267k $1.9M (exactly $1,867,169) JoySpark Games
Microcivilization $17.99 1,437 78% 43k $776k (exactly $775,549) Ondrej Homola
Long Dream older $6.99 962 98% 29k $202k (exactly $201,731) WildMonkey
Crownhold $6.99 471 84% 14k $99k (exactly $98,769) Tobias Mikula
Meow Palace: Forbidden City · EA $5.99 247 90% 7.4k $44k (exactly $44,386) 宫喵家族
Alnico Smithery · EA $14.99 98 82% 2.9k $44k (exactly $44,071) Pinapl
中国战疫 older $16.99 64 76% 1.9k $33k (exactly $32,621) 不吃蛋黄
Elf World Adventure: Part 1 older $1.99 467 82% 14k $28k (exactly $27,880) White Panda Studio, 430Games
Cthulhu pub older $9.99 35 71% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) Marginalact
ZAR older $9.99 17 64% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) PancakeGames
Saccharine Echo $4.99 27 85% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) Neverliss
Носковраздор $0.99 136 51% 4.1k $4.0k (exactly $4,039) BMBK Games
Streetlight Syndicate $6.99 17 82% 510 $3.6k (exactly $3,565) BeagleGuy
Grow Empire: Rome $3.99 28 64% 840 $3.4k (exactly $3,352) Games Station
Regnum Idle $4.99 19 63% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) Vexos Games
Port Trader $5.99 13 46% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) Urban Isotope

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.