Do I ship it?

Games › Online Co-Op › Online Co-Op + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Online Co-Op game?

Online Co-Op + Historical

Of 30 developers who shipped a Historical Online Co-Op game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 60 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $33k, ×22 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $18M, ×12191 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 60 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 22.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 60 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Online Co-Op + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $84k → $11k → $9.4k → $85k → $121k → $31k → $1.3k (still earning) → $21k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Online Co-Op + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $3.6k (exactly $3,565)
Median $33k (exactly $32,984)
Top 25% $508k (exactly $507,946)
Top 5% $18M (exactly $18,262,681)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 130
Announced 60
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $17.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 39%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Online Co-Op
effort 8 / 10 · low · netcode, lobbies and state sync across machines
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Online Co-Op; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Co-op, Action, Action RPG
Price point
$17.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $17.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 48,576 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.6k, median $33k, 1 in 4 over $500k, 1 in 20 over $18M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.6k. 5 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 60 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Online Co-Op with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Bullet HeavenStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair31 devs · median $14k · 32 announced
  3. + TypingFair16 devs · median $5.0k · 12 announced
  4. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Point & ClickFair28 devs · median $1.7k · 34 announced
  6. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  7. + TransportationPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds11 devs · median $346k · 16 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  10. + World War IIPoor odds10 devs · median $188k · 18 announced
  11. + City BuilderPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds20 devs · median $95k · 18 announced

All 211 pairs on the Online Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M Ghost of Tsushima DIRECTOR'S CUT 2024 · $116M Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition 2021 · $87M MORDHAU 2019 · $82M Assassin's Creed® Unity 2014 · $71M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Ghost of Tsushima DIRECTOR'S CUT older $59.99 64,591 93% 1.9M $116M (exactly $116,244,423) Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Softwa… (Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Software)
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition older $39.99 72,275 85% 2.2M $87M (exactly $86,708,318) World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios)
MORDHAU older $29.99 91,678 80% 2.8M $82M (exactly $82,482,697) Triternion
Assassin's Creed® Unity older $29.99 79,116 77% 2.4M $71M (exactly $71,180,665) Ubisoft
Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition older $29.99 54,547 87% 1.6M $49M (exactly $49,075,936) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Company of Heroes 2 older $19.99 68,909 80% 2.1M $41M (exactly $41,324,727) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Age of Empires III: Definitive Edition older $34.99 37,093 84% 1.1M $39M (exactly $38,936,522) World's Edge, Tantalus Media, Forgotten… (World's Edge, Tantalus Media, Forgotten Empires)
Call to Arms - Gates of Hell: Ostfront older $34.99 32,183 85% 965k $34M (exactly $33,782,495) Barbedwire Studios, Digitalmindsoft
Call of Duty: World at War older $19.99 45,792 92% 1.4M $27M (exactly $27,461,462) Treyarch
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Titan Quest II · EA $34.99 17,398 81% 522k $18M (exactly $18,262,681) Grimlore Games
Rise of the Ronin $49.99 6,503 64% 195k $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Sengoku Dynasty $29.99 6,592 74% 198k $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822) Superkami
Aces of Thunder $29.99 1,159 57% 35k $1.0M (exactly $1,042,752) Gaijin Entertainment
Company of Heroes 3: Final Stand $29.99 1,015 49% 30k $913k (exactly $913,196) Relic Entertainment
LIZARDS MUST DIE 2 $9.99 2,232 94% 67k $669k (exactly $668,930) the Bratans, Smola Game Studio
Tank Squad $19.99 847 70% 25k $508k (exactly $507,946) DeGenerals S.A.
63 Days $29.99 413 72% 12k $372k (exactly $371,576) Destructive Creations
Expeditions: Samurai · EA $29.99 267 59% 8.0k $240k (exactly $240,220) Campfire Cabal

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.