Do I ship it?

Games › Dating Sim › Dating Sim + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Historical

Of 39 developers who shipped a Historical Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $27k, ×42 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $2.8k. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 44 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 42.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 44 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $23k → $69k → $10k → $27k → $4.9k → $63k (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $2.7k (exactly $2,728)
Median $27k (exactly $26,673)
Top 25% $136k (exactly $136,132)
Top 5% $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 112
Announced 44
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Dating Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Multiple Endings, RPG, Adventure
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Emotional, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 45,833 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.8k, median $27k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $3.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.8k. 6 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  7. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  8. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  9. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  10. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  11. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  12. + NoirFair16 devs · median $10k · 18 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS 2025 · $41M The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty 2024 · $15M Fate Seeker II 2021 · $7.7M Road to Empress I 2025 · $3.0M The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall 2026 · $3.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty older $9.99 49,765 94% 1.5M $15M (exactly $14,914,570) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Fate Seeker II older $22.60 11,360 88% 341k $7.7M (exactly $7,702,080) JSL Entertainment
Road to Empress I $8.49 11,829 86% 355k $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) New One Studio
The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall $11.99 8,227 58% 247k $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Slaves of Rome older $24.99 1,924 73% 58k $1.4M (exactly $1,442,423) Biggus Diccus Games
My Vow to My Liege older $9.99 3,844 91% 115k $1.2M (exactly $1,152,047) YETU GAME
Max Gentlemen Sexy Business! older $19.99 1,492 92% 45k $895k (exactly $894,752) The Men Who Wear Many Hats
咸鱼殿下 / My journey $11.99 1,979 85% 59k $712k (exactly $711,846) 大聪明工作室
SEX with HITLER older $6.99 3,358 81% 101k $704k (exactly $704,173) Adolf Games
Game of Fate 2: A Century's Promise $15.99 1,054 78% 32k $506k (exactly $505,604) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Hua Manlou $10.99 1,481 97% 44k $488k (exactly $488,286) 初域游戏
Meiji Tokyo Renka Full Moon $59.99 196 91% 5.9k $353k (exactly $352,741) dramatic create
PatriotMemoirs $15.58 528 83% 16k $247k (exactly $246,787) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Tales of Justice Academy: Winds Arise $10.99 460 71% 14k $152k (exactly $151,662) 九芽川 Ninth Leaf
女儿国的诅咒 The Curse of Womanland $9.99 501 96% 15k $150k (exactly $150,150) 符离游戏（FuliGames）

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.