Do I ship it?

Games › Tactical › Tactical + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Tactical game?

Tactical + Historical

Of 159 developers who shipped a Historical Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 282 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.9k, ×16 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.8M, ×6110 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 282 games are announced against 91 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 282 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 159
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.4k → $5.4k → $12k → $26k → $17k → $9.9k → $2.4k (still earning) → $8.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 159
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Median $9.9k (exactly $9,891)
Top 25% $131k (exactly $131,334)
Top 5% $3.8M (exactly $3,837,379)
Developers, 2 yr 159
Released games 636
Announced 282
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Management
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 139,836 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $9.9k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $3.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 6 in 10 of the 87 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 282 games are announced against 91 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition 2019 · $167M Hell Let Loose 2021 · $149M Sid Meier's Civilization® V 2010 · $115M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition older $34.99 158,931 94% 4.8M $167M (exactly $166,829,871) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive)
Hell Let Loose older $49.99 99,628 83% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,412,112) Expression Games
Sid Meier's Civilization® V older $29.99 128,186 95% 3.8M $115M (exactly $115,328,944) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Assassin's Creed® Unity older $29.99 79,116 77% 2.4M $71M (exactly $71,180,665) Ubisoft
Verdun older $59.99 28,967 87% 869k $52M (exactly $52,131,910) BlackMill Games
Age of Empires II (Retired) older $19.99 84,818 95% 2.5M $51M (exactly $50,865,355) Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment,… (Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment, Ensemble Studios, Forgotten Empires)
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
Hell Let Loose: Vietnam $39.99 10,702 61% 321k $13M (exactly $12,839,189) Expression Games
Terra Invicta $39.99 9,057 80% 272k $11M (exactly $10,865,683) Pavonis Interactive
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator $19.99 13,278 97% 398k $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE $59.99 3,118 49% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Over The Top: WWI $19.14 6,683 84% 200k $3.8M (exactly $3,837,379) Flying Squirrel Entertainment
ENDLESS Legend™ 2 · EA $49.99 2,476 83% 74k $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) AMPLITUDE Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.