Do I ship it?

Games › FMV › FMV + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical FMV?

FMV + Historical

Only 15 developers shipped a Historical FMV in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Road to Empress I, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $45k, ×71 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $7.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.0M, ×4798 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 7 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 70.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 7 announced, ×0.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FMV + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $43k → $45k (still earning) → $488k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FMV + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $7.2k (exactly $7,196)
Median $45k (exactly $44,520)
Top 25% $712k (exactly $711,846)
Top 5% $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 33
Announced 7
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
FMV; all of the top 25% also carry Interactive Fiction, Multiple Endings, RPG
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
all of the top 25% ship with Cinematic, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 22,115 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $7.2k, median $45k, 1 in 4 over $710k, 1 in 20 over $3.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $7.2k. 3 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 7 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FMV with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Post-apocalypticStrong odds8 devs · median $74k · 5 announced
  3. + StrategyStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  5. + Immersive SimStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  6. + Choices MatterStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  7. + Dating SimStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  8. + RomanceStrong odds101 devs · median $56k · 63 announced
  9. + SimulationStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  10. + JRPGStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  11. + Visual NovelStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  12. + RPGStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced

All 63 pairs on the FMV page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Road to Empress I 2025 · $3.0M The Centennial Case : A Shijima Story 2022 · $1.5M Shao Song I 2026 · $1.2M Conquer the world 2025 · $778k 咸鱼殿下 / My journey 2025 · $712k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Road to Empress I $8.49 11,829 86% 355k $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) New One Studio
The Centennial Case : A Shijima Story older $49.99 1,033 79% 31k $1.5M (exactly $1,549,190) Square Enix
Shao Song I $14.99 2,671 81% 80k $1.2M (exactly $1,201,149) 互动之星, 猫眼娱乐
Conquer the world $12.99 1,996 92% 60k $778k (exactly $777,841) 互动之星
咸鱼殿下 / My journey $11.99 1,979 85% 59k $712k (exactly $711,846) 大聪明工作室
神都不良探 Underdog Detective older $7.99 2,719 73% 82k $652k (exactly $651,744) 天津芸芸科技有限公司
Game of Fate 2: A Century's Promise $15.99 1,054 78% 32k $506k (exactly $505,604) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Hua Manlou $10.99 1,481 97% 44k $488k (exactly $488,286) 初域游戏
PatriotMemoirs $15.58 528 83% 16k $247k (exactly $246,787) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Japanese Rail Sim: Journey to Kyoto older $59.99 111 87% 3.3k $200k (exactly $199,767) Sonic Powered Co.,Ltd.
Horny: Zero Moan 🔞🦕 $14.99 121 69% 3.6k $54k (exactly $54,414) Lewd Star
Throbbin Hood 🏹🔞 $14.99 99 80% 3.0k $45k (exactly $44,520) BanzaiProject
蜀汉再临：源起 Restart ShuHan Dynasty:Origin $3.99 357 76% 11k $43k (exactly $42,733) 浙江海蕊盈信网络科技有限公司

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.