Do I ship it?

GamesTabletopTabletop + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Tabletop game?

Tabletop + Historical

Of 57 developers who shipped a Historical Tabletop game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 67 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $240. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 67 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 67 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tabletop + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 57
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $3.0k → $1.1k → $2.5k → $1.4k → $9.9k → $1.3k (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tabletop + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 57
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,386)
Top 5% $371k (exactly $370,676)
Developers, 2 yr 57
Released games 193
Announced 67
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tabletop; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Wargame
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 7,612 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 67 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tabletop with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BuildingFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  2. + CRPGFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  3. + RTSFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  4. + MilitaryFair30 devs · median $1.4k · 20 announced
  5. + DragonsFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  6. + MahjongFair26 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  7. + WargameFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  8. + SpaceFair29 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  9. + CapitalismFair35 devs · median $807 · 33 announced
  10. + HorrorFair50 devs · median $776 · 51 announced
  11. + Local Co-OpFair31 devs · median $748 · 33 announced
  12. + Psychological HorrorFair28 devs · median $746 · 30 announced

All 155 pairs on the Tabletop page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ultimate General: Civil War older $29.99 8,331 88% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,495,401) Game-Labs
Axis & Allies 1942 Online older $19.99 4,810 78% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,884,557) Beamdog
Scythe: Digital Edition older $19.99 3,164 89% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,897,451) The Knights of Unity
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Tabletop Tavern $19.99 2,049 89% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,785) TJ
Radio Commander: Vietnam '64 older $19.99 1,764 72% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,057,871) Serious Sim
Through the Ages older $15.99 2,188 90% 66k $1.0M (exactly $1,049,584) CGE Digital
The Troop older $39.99 816 83% 24k $979k (exactly $978,955) Giant Flame
Twilight Struggle older $9.99 2,568 86% 77k $770k (exactly $769,630) Playdek, Inc.
Hex of Steel older $24.99 863 95% 26k $647k (exactly $646,991) War Frogs Studio
HEART of CROWN Online $29.99 412 84% 12k $371k (exactly $370,676) illuCalab, FLIPFLOPs, quziralab.
NUTMEG! A Nostalgic Deckbuilding Football Manager $24.99 378 89% 11k $283k (exactly $283,387) Sumo Digital, Sumo Digital Academy
Doodle Empires · EA $6.99 1,279 92% 38k $268k (exactly $268,206) Turtle Stack Games
Strategos · EA $24.99 233 85% 7.0k $175k (exactly $174,680) Strategos Games
Mr. President $19.99 162 75% 4.9k $97k (exactly $97,151) Exia Labs
Headquarters: Cold War $29.99 37 64% 1.1k $33k (exactly $33,289) Starni Games
Shadowhand Solitaire $13.99 64 90% 1.9k $27k (exactly $26,861) Grey Alien Games
Combat Directive : Napoleonic Wars $19.99 36 88% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) Fatice Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.