Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Open World game?

Open World + Historical

Of 99 developers who shipped a Historical Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 184 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $58k, ×38 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $31M, ×20933 the market median. Revenue is up 160% on the market; 184 games are announced against 56 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 38.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 160% on the market, 184 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 99
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.2k → $7.0k → $41k → $35k → $80k → $58k → $111k (still earning) → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 99
Bottom 30% $4.5k (exactly $4,498)
Median $58k (exactly $57,562)
Top 25% $766k (exactly $766,289)
Top 5% $31M (exactly $31,357,227)
Developers, 2 yr 99
Released games 402
Announced 184
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 160% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Simulation
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 303,209 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.5k, median $58k, 1 in 4 over $760k, 1 in 20 over $31M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.5k. 5 in 10 of the 61 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 184 games are announced against 56 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Battlefield™ V 2020 · $355M Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord 2022 · $346M Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M Kingdom Come: Deliverance II 2025 · $260M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord older $49.99 230,490 87% 6.9M $346M (exactly $345,665,853) TaleWorlds Entertainment
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
Battlefield™ 1 older $39.99 200,661 86% 6.0M $241M (exactly $240,733,002) DICE
Assassin's Creed® Origins older $59.99 119,764 85% 3.6M $216M (exactly $215,539,271) Ubisoft Montreal
Kingdom Come: Deliverance older $29.99 143,303 83% 4.3M $129M (exactly $128,929,709) Warhorse Studios
Ghost of Tsushima DIRECTOR'S CUT older $59.99 64,591 93% 1.9M $116M (exactly $116,244,423) Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Softwa… (Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Software)
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
The Blood of Dawnwalker $69.99 15,789 86% 474k $33M (exactly $33,152,163) Rebel Wolves
Mafia: The Old Country $49.99 20,909 71% 627k $31M (exactly $31,357,227) Hangar 13
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Nioh 3 $69.99 11,777 78% 353k $25M (exactly $24,728,167) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Titan Quest II · EA $34.99 17,398 81% 522k $18M (exactly $18,262,681) Grimlore Games
Assassin's Creed Mirage $49.99 11,612 76% 348k $17M (exactly $17,414,516) Ubisoft Bordeaux
Rise of the Ronin $49.99 6,503 64% 195k $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.