Do I ship it?

Games › Destruction › Destruction + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Destruction game?

Destruction + Historical

Only 15 developers shipped a Historical Destruction game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Over The Top: WWI, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $26k, ×42 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.8M, ×6110 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 22 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 42.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 22 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $597 → $129k → $32k → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,915)
Median $26k (exactly $26,374)
Top 25% $44k (exactly $43,649)
Top 5% $3.8M (exactly $3,837,379)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 51
Announced 22
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 10,701 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.0k, median $26k, 1 in 4 over $43k, 1 in 20 over $3.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  7. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  9. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  10. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds36 devs · median $4.9k · 101 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Battlefield™ V 2020 · $355M Battlefield™ 1 2020 · $241M Total War: THREE KINGDOMS 2019 · $76M Men of War: Assault Squad 2 2014 · $32M Dawn of Man 2019 · $13M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
Battlefield™ 1 older $39.99 200,661 86% 6.0M $241M (exactly $240,733,002) DICE
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Men of War: Assault Squad 2 older $29.99 35,744 91% 1.1M $32M (exactly $32,158,877) Digitalmindsoft
Dawn of Man older $24.99 17,094 86% 513k $13M (exactly $12,815,372) Madruga Works
Gunner, HEAT, PC! · EA older $29.99 7,603 91% 228k $6.8M (exactly $6,840,419) Radian Simulations LLC
Over The Top: WWI $19.14 6,683 84% 200k $3.8M (exactly $3,837,379) Flying Squirrel Entertainment
Call to Arms: Panzer Elite · EA $29.99 1,927 69% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,733,722) Digitalmindsoft
Rock of Ages 2: Bigger & Boulder™ older $14.99 2,792 90% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,255,562) ACE Team
Men of War: Assault Squad older $9.99 4,029 87% 121k $1.2M (exactly $1,207,491) Digitalmindsoft
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
Good Kill! · EA $13.99 104 68% 3.1k $44k (exactly $43,649) gamegine
KILLDOZER · EA $19.99 57 78% 1.7k $34k (exactly $34,183) Rename For Value
River City Saga: Three Kingdoms Next $29.99 37 62% 1.1k $33k (exactly $33,289) Arc System Works
Battlefield Commander WWII · EA $19.99 54 70% 1.6k $32k (exactly $32,384) Sword of Steel
Nuclear Design Bureau · EA $9.99 88 79% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,374) Design Bureau KB-11
SGS Spain at War $29.99 25 88% 750 $22k (exactly $22,492) Strategy Game Studio, Headquarter Warga… (Strategy Game Studio, Headquarter Wargames)
NAPOLEON: RULE OF IRON $19.99 22 90% 660 $13k (exactly $13,193) Eisengeist Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.