Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Sports game?

Sports + Historical

Of 20 developers who shipped a Historical Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $410. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 13 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 13 announced, ×0.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $3.3k → $4.7k → $4.7k → $180 → $4.5k (still earning) → $3.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $405 (exactly $405)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 25% $7.6k (exactly $7,645)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 68
Announced 13
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports; all of the top 25% also carry Management, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Text-Based
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 2,063 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $410, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $7.6k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $410. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Walkabout Mini Golf VR older $24.99 3,094 97% 93k $2.3M (exactly $2,319,572) Mighty Coconut
Out of the Park Baseball 26 $49.99 819 82% 25k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254) Out of the Park Developments
Out of the Park Baseball 27 $49.99 475 82% 14k $712k (exactly $712,358) Out of the Park Developments
NUTMEG! A Nostalgic Deckbuilding Football Manager $24.99 378 89% 11k $283k (exactly $283,387) Sumo Digital, Sumo Digital Academy
Franchise Hockey Manager 6 older $19.99 307 78% 9.2k $184k (exactly $184,108) Out of the Park Developments, Minos Gam… (Out of the Park Developments, Minos Games)
Dragon Fist: VR Kung Fu older $19.99 305 95% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Ben Olding Games
Qvadriga older $19.99 291 84% 8.7k $175k (exactly $174,513) Turnopia
Age of Gladiators older $7.99 709 77% 21k $170k (exactly $169,947) Creative Storm Entertainment
Age of Gladiators II: Rome older $19.99 272 66% 8.2k $163k (exactly $163,118) Creative Storm Entertainment
Franchise Hockey Manager 10 older $19.99 200 81% 6.0k $120k (exactly $119,940) Out of the Park Developments, game54 So… (Out of the Park Developments, game54 Software)
Franchise Hockey Manager 11 $19.99 148 70% 4.4k $89k (exactly $88,756) game54 Software, Out of the Park Develo… (game54 Software, Out of the Park Developments)
Franchise Hockey Manager 12 $19.99 132 78% 4.0k $79k (exactly $79,160) game54 Software, Out of the Park Develo… (game54 Software, Out of the Park Developments)
Pro Strategy Football 2026 $24.99 28 89% 840 $21k (exactly $20,992) Kerry Batts
Derby Heroines: Run, Bet, Win! $14.99 17 94% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) SHINISE GAMES, MFC STUDIO
World Hockey '88 $12.99 12 83% 360 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Phantasma Digital
Balling Up $3.99 39 79% 1.2k $4.7k (exactly $4,668) RedKar Devs
Sim: Heavyweight Boxing Champion $9.99 15 93% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Jfsimgames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.