Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Historical

Of 111 developers who shipped a Historical Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 191 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.3k, ×5.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.9M, ×2663 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 191 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 191 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 111
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $5.4k → $41k → $8.3k → $68k → $7.2k → $7.2k (still earning) → $7.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 111
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,435)
Median $8.3k (exactly $8,252)
Top 25% $160k (exactly $159,520)
Top 5% $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204)
Developers, 2 yr 111
Released games 342
Announced 191
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $32.00 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $32.00 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 103,474 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $8.3k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $3.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 6 in 10 of the 66 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 191 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
Medieval Dynasty older $34.99 43,074 90% 1.3M $45M (exactly $45,214,778) Render Cube
Rising Storm 2: Vietnam older $24.99 42,381 87% 1.3M $32M (exactly $31,773,036) Antimatter Games, Tripwire Interactive
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV older $59.99 13,086 62% 393k $24M (exactly $23,550,874) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Red Orchestra 2: Heroes of Stalingrad with Rising Storm older $19.99 24,876 93% 746k $15M (exactly $14,918,137) Tripwire Interactive
Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey older $39.99 9,794 81% 294k $12M (exactly $11,749,862) Panache Digital Games
Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII older $59.99 5,828 57% 175k $10M (exactly $10,488,652) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator $19.99 13,278 97% 398k $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE $59.99 3,118 49% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
Road to Empress I $8.49 11,829 86% 355k $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) New One Studio
MEMORIAPOLIS $32.00 1,752 75% 53k $1.7M (exactly $1,681,920) 5PM Studio
Reentry - A Space Flight Simulator $34.99 1,319 97% 40k $1.4M (exactly $1,384,554) Lyra Creative
Shao Song I $14.99 2,671 81% 80k $1.2M (exactly $1,201,149) 互动之星, 猫眼娱乐

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.