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Should I ship a Historical Naval Combat game?
Naval Combat + Historical
Of 24 developers who shipped a Historical Naval Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 49 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $8.5k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×1209 the market median. Revenue is up 1210% on the market; 49 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $838 (exactly $838) |
|---|---|
| Median | $8.5k (exactly $8,544) |
| Top 25% | $67k (exactly $67,462) |
| Top 5% | $759k (exactly $759,410) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 24 |
| Released games | 99 |
| Announced | 49 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1210% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Naval Combat
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Historical
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Naval Combat; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Combat, Simulation, Strategy
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 28,732 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $840. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 49 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Naval Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + World War IIFair
- + MilitaryFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + ArcadeLong shot
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + RTSPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced | $59.99 | 26,652 81% | 800k | $48M (exactly $47,965,604) | Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania) | |
| | UBOAT | older | $29.99 | 25,568 83% | 767k | $23M (exactly $23,003,530) | Deep Water Studio |
| | Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts | older | $34.99 | 6,664 62% | 200k | $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) | Game-Labs |
| | Naval Action | older | $19.99 | 10,187 52% | 306k | $6.1M (exactly $6,109,144) | Bermuda Computer Club |
| | Cold Waters | older | $39.99 | 4,603 87% | 138k | $5.5M (exactly $5,522,219) | Killerfish Games |
| | Blazing Sails | older | $14.99 | 8,361 87% | 251k | $3.8M (exactly $3,759,942) | Get Up Games, Iceberg Interactive |
| | Caribbean Legend | older | $39.99 | 2,860 74% | 86k | $3.4M (exactly $3,431,142) | BlackMark Studio |
| | Sailing Era | older | $24.99 | 4,565 78% | 137k | $3.4M (exactly $3,422,380) | GY Games |
| | Wolfpack | · EA older | $34.99 | 1,862 88% | 56k | $2.0M (exactly $1,954,541) | Usurpator AB |
| | Sid Meier's Pirates! | older | $9.99 | 6,198 94% | 186k | $1.9M (exactly $1,857,541) | Firaxis Games |
| | Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles | · EA | $39.99 | 633 87% | 19k | $759k (exactly $759,410) | Drydock Dreams Games |
| | Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates | $19.99 | 638 70% | 19k | $383k (exactly $382,609) | ReCon Team | |
| | Battleship Command | · EA | $24.99 | 278 93% | 8.3k | $208k (exactly $208,417) | Bracer |
| | Victory at Sea Atlantic - World War II Naval Warfare | $39.99 | 92 60% | 2.8k | $110k (exactly $110,372) | Evil Twin Artworks | |
| | Silent Shark | $17.99 | 125 98% | 3.8k | $67k (exactly $67,462) | John Goering | |
| | Corsairs - Battle of the Caribbean | $14.99 | 119 33% | 3.6k | $54k (exactly $53,514) | Fishing Cactus | |
| | Terror of the Seven Seas | $14.99 | 108 78% | 3.2k | $49k (exactly $48,568) | Cutthroat Games | |
| | City States: Medieval | $19.99 | 48 68% | 1.4k | $29k (exactly $28,786) | Reverie World Studios | |
| | Realms of Madness | $15.99 | 39 89% | 1.2k | $19k (exactly $18,708) | Robin van der Horst |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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