Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Board Game?

Board Game + Historical

Of 60 developers who shipped a Historical Board Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 81 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $360. Revenue is up 260% on the market; 81 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 260% on the market, 81 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Board Game + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 60
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $2.9k → $2.5k → $1.2k → $449 → $5.4k → $1.2k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Board Game + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 60
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $9.0k (exactly $8,992)
Top 5% $371k (exactly $370,676)
Developers, 2 yr 60
Released games 248
Announced 81
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Board Game; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 4,536 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 81 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Board Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Party-Based RPGFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  3. + JRPGFair13 devs · median $2.5k · 7 announced
  4. + Local Co-OpFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Female ProtagonistFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  6. + LGBTQ+Fair8 devs · median $1.2k · 5 announced
  7. + SpaceFair28 devs · median $1.2k · 27 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  9. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $1.1k · 21 announced
  10. + Party GameFair72 devs · median $899 · 98 announced
  11. + DragonsFair15 devs · median $838 · 15 announced
  12. + DogsFair11 devs · median $776 · 6 announced

All 152 pairs on the Board Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Ultimate General: Civil War 2017 · $7.5M Axis & Allies 1942 Online 2021 · $2.9M Scythe: Digital Edition 2018 · $1.9M Drop Duchy 2025 · $1.3M Through the Ages 2018 · $1.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ultimate General: Civil War older $29.99 8,331 88% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,495,401) Game-Labs
Axis & Allies 1942 Online older $19.99 4,810 78% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,884,557) Beamdog
Scythe: Digital Edition older $19.99 3,164 89% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,897,451) The Knights of Unity
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Through the Ages older $15.99 2,188 90% 66k $1.0M (exactly $1,049,584) CGE Digital
Twilight Struggle older $9.99 2,568 86% 77k $770k (exactly $769,630) Playdek, Inc.
Hex of Steel older $24.99 863 95% 26k $647k (exactly $646,991) War Frogs Studio
Second Front older $34.99 613 78% 18k $643k (exactly $643,466) Hexdraw
Headquarters: World War II older $39.99 508 74% 15k $609k (exactly $609,448) Starni Games
Strategic Mind: Blitzkrieg older $39.99 442 84% 13k $530k (exactly $530,267) Starni Games
Burden of Command™ $24.99 628 83% 19k $471k (exactly $470,812) Green Tree Games LLC
HEART of CROWN Online $29.99 412 84% 12k $371k (exactly $370,676) illuCalab, FLIPFLOPs, quziralab.
Mr. President $19.99 162 75% 4.9k $97k (exactly $97,151) Exia Labs
No Retreat! The Russian Front $29.99 80 76% 2.4k $72k (exactly $71,976) Cyril Jarnot, Avalon Digital
Folk Emerging $24.99 73 86% 2.2k $55k (exactly $54,728) Curious Dynamics
Bonaparte - A Mechanized Revolution $24.99 72 68% 2.2k $54k (exactly $53,978) Studio Imugi
Headquarters: Cold War $29.99 37 64% 1.1k $33k (exactly $33,289) Starni Games
Danmo Three Kingdoms: Battle of Wits $11.99 82 76% 2.5k $29k (exactly $29,495) 墨春秋
Pro Strategy Football 2026 $24.99 28 89% 840 $21k (exactly $20,992) Kerry Batts

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.