Do I ship it?

Games › Co-op › Co-op + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Co-op game?

Co-op + Historical

Of 36 developers who shipped a Historical Co-op game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 77 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $17k, ×12 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $21M, ×14597 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 77 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 77 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Co-op + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $158k → $738k → $41k → $57k → $274k → $102k → $3.6k (still earning) → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Co-op + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $17k (exactly $17,498)
Top 25% $767k (exactly $766,544)
Top 5% $22M (exactly $21,866,355)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 227
Announced 77
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $17.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Co-op
effort 7 / 10 · low · co-op on Steam means online sessions and drop-in sync
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Co-op; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Online Co-Op, RPG
Price point
$17.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $17.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 61,205 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $17k, 1 in 4 over $760k, 1 in 20 over $21M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 5 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 77 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Co-op with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroFair9 devs · median $11k · 17 announced
  2. + Boomer ShooterFair16 devs · median $6.9k · 24 announced
  3. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  4. + NinjaFair13 devs · median $4.2k · 13 announced
  5. + TypingLong shot16 devs · median $810 · 13 announced
  6. + Word GameLong shot23 devs · median $267 · 23 announced
  7. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds12 devs · median $372k · 23 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds48 devs · median $369k · 110 announced
  10. + TransportationPoor odds17 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds15 devs · median $164k · 19 announced
  12. + Turn-BasedPoor odds12 devs · median $131k · 19 announced

All 230 pairs on the Co-op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Battlefield™ 1 2020 · $241M Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition 2019 · $167M Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Battlefield™ 1 older $39.99 200,661 86% 6.0M $241M (exactly $240,733,002) DICE
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition older $34.99 158,931 94% 4.8M $167M (exactly $166,829,871) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive)
Europa Universalis IV older $49.99 94,114 87% 2.8M $141M (exactly $141,142,766) Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto)
Sid Meier's Civilization® V older $29.99 128,186 95% 3.8M $115M (exactly $115,328,944) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition older $39.99 72,275 85% 2.2M $87M (exactly $86,708,318) World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios)
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Assassin's Creed® Unity older $29.99 79,116 77% 2.4M $71M (exactly $71,180,665) Ubisoft
Call of Duty®: WWII older $59.99 33,576 71% 1.0M $60M (exactly $60,426,727) Sledgehammer Games, Raven Software
Nioh 3 $69.99 11,777 78% 353k $25M (exactly $24,728,167) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Titan Quest II · EA $34.99 17,398 81% 522k $18M (exactly $18,262,681) Grimlore Games
Rise of the Ronin $49.99 6,503 64% 195k $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Sengoku Dynasty $29.99 6,592 74% 198k $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822) Superkami
ENDLESS Legend™ 2 · EA $49.99 2,476 83% 74k $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) AMPLITUDE Studios
Aces of Thunder $29.99 1,159 57% 35k $1.0M (exactly $1,042,752) Gaijin Entertainment
Company of Heroes 3: Final Stand $29.99 1,015 49% 30k $913k (exactly $913,196) Relic Entertainment
YAR: Forgotten Throne $19.99 1,283 89% 38k $769k (exactly $769,415) Honor Games
Heroes of Science and Fiction $29.99 852 89% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) Oxymoron Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.