Do I ship it?

GamesLocal MultiplayerLocal Multiplayer + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Local Multiplayer game?

Local Multiplayer + Historical

Of 33 developers who shipped a Historical Local Multiplayer game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $210. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 36 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 36 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Local Multiplayer + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $18k → $3.4k → $7.0k → $2.1k → $1.2k → $1.2k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Local Multiplayer + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $4.7k (exactly $4,676)
Top 5% $115k (exactly $115,123)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 134
Announced 36
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Local Multiplayer; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Combat, Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.95 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.95 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 1,871 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $900, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Local Multiplayer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + HockeyStrong odds11 devs · median $3.0k · 12 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair61 devs · median $5.8k · 64 announced
  3. + Action RPGFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  4. + Hex GridFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  5. + ModernFair24 devs · median $3.6k · 16 announced
  6. + WargameFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  7. + TennisFair18 devs · median $2.3k · 10 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 8 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair26 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  10. + Football (American)Fair13 devs · median $1.8k · 4 announced
  11. + SportsFair196 devs · median $1.6k · 208 announced
  12. + RunnerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced

All 174 pairs on the Local Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DYNASTY WARRIORS 8: Xtreme Legends Complete Edition older $49.99 11,886 83% 357k $18M (exactly $17,825,434) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Romance of the Three Kingdoms XI with Power Up Kit older $39.99 3,754 92% 113k $4.5M (exactly $4,503,674) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Hellish Quart · EA older $17.99 8,068 88% 242k $4.4M (exactly $4,354,300) Kubold
Civilization IV: Beyond the Sword older $29.99 3,888 96% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,498,034) Firaxis Games
Axis & Allies 1942 Online older $19.99 4,810 78% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,884,557) Beamdog
WARRIORS OROCHI 3 Ultimate Definitive Edition older $39.99 2,129 88% 64k $2.6M (exactly $2,554,161) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Sid Meier's Civilization® IV older $19.99 2,789 92% 84k $1.7M (exactly $1,672,563) Firaxis Games
Rock of Ages 2: Bigger & Boulder™ older $14.99 2,792 90% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,255,562) ACE Team
Combat Mission Shock Force 2 older $59.99 624 80% 19k $1.1M (exactly $1,123,013) Battlefront
Rock of Ages older $9.99 3,364 92% 101k $1.0M (exactly $1,008,191) ACE Team
Gladio Mori $15.99 1,147 82% 34k $550k (exactly $550,216) Plebeian Studio
Two Strikes $14.99 256 89% 7.7k $115k (exactly $115,123) Retro Reactor
Franchise Hockey Manager 11 $19.99 148 70% 4.4k $89k (exactly $88,756) game54 Software, Out of the Park Develo… (game54 Software, Out of the Park Developments)
Franchise Hockey Manager 12 $19.99 132 78% 4.0k $79k (exactly $79,160) game54 Software, Out of the Park Develo… (game54 Software, Out of the Park Developments)
Headquarters: Cold War $29.99 37 64% 1.1k $33k (exactly $33,289) Starni Games
Ritter & Rotwein $12.49 86 68% 2.6k $32k (exactly $32,224) Hurdy-Gurdy Games
Sword & Siege Crusades: Book I $39.95 19 100% 570 $23k (exactly $22,772) Wargame Design Studio
Horn of the Warlord $14.99 30 96% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) MagicKrol
American Revolutionary War $39.95 9 100% 270 $11k (exactly $10,786) Wargame Design Studio
Sword & Siege Age of Longbow: Volume I $39.95 7 100% 210 $8.4k (exactly $8,390) Wargame Design Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.