Should I ship a Historical game?
Historical
Of 1,048 developers who shipped a Historical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,785 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2190 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 1,785 games are announced against 624 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $598 (exactly $598) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.0k (exactly $2,997) |
| Top 25% | $34k (exactly $34,183) |
| Top 5% | $1.4M (exactly $1,375,225) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 1,048 |
| Released games | 3,897 |
| Announced | 1,785 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Historical
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 370,083 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 581 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,785 games are announced against 624 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.
All pairs with Historical
No pair with Historical has 25 games yet.
Comparable games
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M 
Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M 
Battlefield™ V 2020 · $355M 
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord 2022 · $346M 
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI | older | $59.99 | 276,113 86% | 8.3M | $497M (exactly $496,920,566) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
| | Hearts of Iron IV | older | $49.99 | 274,901 90% | 8.2M | $412M (exactly $412,269,030) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Battlefield™ V | older | $49.99 | 236,709 70% | 7.1M | $355M (exactly $354,992,487) | DICE |
| | Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord | older | $49.99 | 230,490 87% | 6.9M | $346M (exactly $345,665,853) | TaleWorlds Entertainment |
| | Assassin's Creed® Odyssey | older | $59.99 | 172,149 89% | 5.2M | $310M (exactly $309,816,555) | Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai) |
 | Kingdom Come: Deliverance II | $59.99 | 144,558 93% | 4.3M | $260M (exactly $260,161,033) | Warhorse Studios | |
 | Battlefield™ 1 | older | $39.99 | 200,661 86% | 6.0M | $241M (exactly $240,733,002) | DICE |
 | Assassin's Creed® Origins | older | $59.99 | 119,764 85% | 3.6M | $216M (exactly $215,539,271) | Ubisoft Montreal |
 | Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition | older | $34.99 | 158,931 94% | 4.8M | $167M (exactly $166,829,871) | World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive) |
 | Hell Let Loose | older | $49.99 | 99,628 83% | 3.0M | $149M (exactly $149,412,112) | Expression Games |
 | Sid Meier's Civilization VII | $69.99 | 44,789 48% | 1.3M | $94M (exactly $94,043,463) | Firaxis Games | |
 | Assassin’s Creed Shadows | $69.99 | 34,953 75% | 1.0M | $73M (exactly $73,390,814) | Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine) | |
 | Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced | $59.99 | 26,652 81% | 800k | $48M (exactly $47,965,604) | Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania) | |
 | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
 | DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS | $69.99 | 19,578 92% | 587k | $41M (exactly $41,107,927) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | The Blood of Dawnwalker | $69.99 | 15,789 86% | 474k | $33M (exactly $33,152,163) | Rebel Wolves | |
 | Mafia: The Old Country | $49.99 | 20,909 71% | 627k | $31M (exactly $31,357,227) | Hangar 13 | |
 | Indiana Jones and the Great Circle | $69.99 | 13,058 89% | 392k | $27M (exactly $27,417,883) | MachineGames | |
 | Farthest Frontier | $34.99 | 24,444 86% | 733k | $26M (exactly $25,658,867) | Crate Entertainment |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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