Do I ship it?

Games › Action RTS › Action RTS + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Action RTS?

Action RTS + Historical

Of 26 developers who shipped a Historical Action RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $29k, ×19 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×1218 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 57 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 19.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 57 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RTS + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $67k → $50k → $85k → $54k (still earning) → $18k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RTS + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Median $29k (exactly $28,786)
Top 25% $110k (exactly $110,372)
Top 5% $1.8M (exactly $1,824,433)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 68
Announced 57
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RTS; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Real Time Tactics, Strategy, Tactical
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 18,270 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.6k, median $29k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.6k. 5 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RTS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Auto BattlerFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  2. + FPSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  3. + PuzzleLong shot16 devs · median $594 · 16 announced
  4. + Turn-Based StrategyPoor odds12 devs · median $85k · 16 announced
  5. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds9 devs · median $85k · 18 announced
  6. + Real-TimePoor odds12 devs · median $31k · 18 announced
  7. + Online Co-OpPoor odds25 devs · median $18k · 54 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds30 devs · median $13k · 50 announced
  9. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds22 devs · median $11k · 51 announced
  10. + Grand StrategyPoor odds25 devs · median $7.5k · 41 announced
  11. + 4XPoor odds10 devs · median $7.2k · 23 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds19 devs · median $7.2k · 35 announced

All 89 pairs on the Action RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition 2021 · $87M Company of Heroes 3 2023 · $44M Diplomacy is Not an Option 2024 · $9.8M Cossacks 3 2016 · $7.4M Sudden Strike 4 2017 · $3.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition older $39.99 72,275 85% 2.2M $87M (exactly $86,708,318) World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios)
Company of Heroes 3 older $59.99 24,516 59% 735k $44M (exactly $44,121,445) Relic Entertainment
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
Cossacks 3 older $19.99 12,406 82% 372k $7.4M (exactly $7,439,878) GSC Game World
Sudden Strike 4 older $19.99 6,249 78% 187k $3.7M (exactly $3,747,525) Kite Games
War Mongrels older $44.99 1,826 72% 55k $2.5M (exactly $2,464,552) Destructive Creations
Rising Front $14.99 4,057 88% 122k $1.8M (exactly $1,824,433) Sandstorm Studios Inc.
Sudden Strike 5 $49.99 641 75% 19k $961k (exactly $961,308) Kite Games
Company of Heroes 3: Final Stand $29.99 1,015 49% 30k $913k (exactly $913,196) Relic Entertainment
Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles · EA $39.99 633 87% 19k $759k (exactly $759,410) Drydock Dreams Games
Warlords Battleground: Extraction $11.99 525 84% 16k $189k (exactly $188,842) 绝汪
Victory at Sea Atlantic - World War II Naval Warfare $39.99 92 60% 2.8k $110k (exactly $110,372) Evil Twin Artworks
Toy Tactics $24.99 121 91% 3.6k $91k (exactly $90,714) Kraken Empire
Bellfortis $19.99 141 90% 4.2k $85k (exactly $84,558) Rake in Grass
Nations · EA $14.99 141 89% 4.2k $63k (exactly $63,408) Krzysztof Steiner

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.