Do I ship it?

GamesParty-Based RPGParty-Based RPG + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Party-Based RPG?

Party-Based RPG + Choices Matter

Of 97 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Party-Based RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 290 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $680k, ×1091 the market median. Revenue is up 205% on the market; 290 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 205% on the market, 290 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Party-Based RPG + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 97
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $9.0k → $4.8k → $3.2k → $5.8k → $3.4k → $8.9k (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Party-Based RPG + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 97
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 25% $57k (exactly $56,977)
Top 5% $685k (exactly $685,454)
Developers, 2 yr 97
Released games 276
Announced 290
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 205% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Party-Based RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Party-Based RPG, Choices Matter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Combat, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 15,283 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $56k, 1 in 20 over $680k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 290 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Party-Based RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Board GameFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Point & ClickFair17 devs · median $2.5k · 20 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair15 devs · median $479 · 16 announced
  5. + Martial ArtsPoor odds5 devs · median $230k · 16 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $49k · 25 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $34k · 71 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 37 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds14 devs · median $21k · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds67 devs · median $19k · 76 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $19k · 51 announced
  12. + IncrementalPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 45 announced

All 111 pairs on the Party-Based RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition older $29.99 28,721 85% 862k $26M (exactly $25,840,284) BioWare
OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ older $59.99 13,923 85% 418k $25M (exactly $25,057,223) Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp.
OCTOPATH TRAVELER II older $59.99 13,407 93% 402k $24M (exactly $24,128,578) Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp.
Wasteland 3 older $39.99 17,263 84% 518k $21M (exactly $20,710,421) inXile Entertainment
Solasta: Crown of the Magister older $29.99 19,680 87% 590k $18M (exactly $17,706,096) Tactical Adventures
Pathfinder: Kingmaker — Enhanced Plus Edition older $19.99 28,146 77% 844k $17M (exactly $16,879,156) Owlcat Games
Pillars of Eternity older $29.99 16,990 87% 510k $15M (exactly $15,285,903) Obsidian Entertainment
Wildermyth older $24.99 16,316 94% 489k $12M (exactly $12,232,105) Worldwalker Games LLC
Tyranny older $29.99 9,877 87% 296k $8.9M (exactly $8,886,337) Obsidian Entertainment
Solasta II · EA $39.99 2,931 75% 88k $3.5M (exactly $3,516,321) Tactical Adventures
Sunderfolk $49.99 1,890 93% 57k $2.8M (exactly $2,834,433) Secret Door
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
Beast Saga $20.99 2,714 80% 81k $1.7M (exactly $1,709,006) 嘉兴黑曜石(Jiaxing Obsidian)
Urban Strife $34.99 653 69% 20k $685k (exactly $685,454) White Pond Games
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
Swordhaven: Iron Conspiracy $24.99 783 75% 23k $587k (exactly $587,015) AtomTeam
New Arc Line · EA $24.99 687 68% 21k $515k (exactly $515,044) Dreamate
Aether & Iron $24.99 521 84% 16k $391k (exactly $390,594) Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games
The NOexistenceN of Morphean Paradox : The Forest of Silver Shallots · EA $6.99 1,697 72% 51k $356k (exactly $355,861) 0x0Real Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.