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Should I ship a Choices Matter Base Building game?
Base Building + Choices Matter
Of 109 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 309 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.0k, ×9.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $780; 1 in 20 cleared $2.6M, ×4275 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 309 games are announced against 62 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $779 (exactly $779) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.0k (exactly $5,992) |
| Top 25% | $155k (exactly $155,030) |
| Top 5% | $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 109 |
| Released games | 283 |
| Announced | 309 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Base Building
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Base Building, Choices Matter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Resource Management, Simulation, Strategy
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $31.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $31.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 80,114 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $780. 6 in 10 of the 53 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 309 games are announced against 62 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + ProgrammingFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + SailingPoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + UndergroundPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
Comparable games
Frostpunk 2018 · $103M 
This War of Mine 2014 · $49M 
Frostpunk 2 2024 · $28M 
Foundation 2025 · $24M 
Kingdoms and Castles 2017 · $18M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Frostpunk | older | $29.99 | 114,376 92% | 3.4M | $103M (exactly $102,904,087) | 11 bit studios |
| | This War of Mine | older | $19.99 | 81,804 93% | 2.5M | $49M (exactly $49,057,859) | 11 bit studios |
| | Frostpunk 2 | $44.99 | 20,872 74% | 626k | $28M (exactly $28,170,938) | 11 bit studios | |
| | Foundation | $34.99 | 23,037 86% | 691k | $24M (exactly $24,181,939) | Polymorph Games | |
| | Kingdoms and Castles | older | $19.99 | 30,311 93% | 909k | $18M (exactly $18,177,507) | Lion Shield, LLC |
 | IXION | older | $34.99 | 15,281 77% | 458k | $16M (exactly $16,040,466) | Bulwark Studios |
 | Gas Station Simulator | older | $19.99 | 23,839 88% | 715k | $14M (exactly $14,296,248) | DRAGO entertainment |
 | ELEX | older | $29.99 | 12,443 72% | 373k | $11M (exactly $11,194,967) | Piranha Bytes |
 | Sins of a Solar Empire II | older | $49.99 | 7,147 83% | 214k | $11M (exactly $10,718,356) | Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment) |
 | Stranded: Alien Dawn | older | $34.99 | 9,715 84% | 291k | $10M (exactly $10,197,836) | Haemimont Games |
 | Quarantine Zone: The Last Check | $19.99 | 11,827 81% | 355k | $7.1M (exactly $7,092,652) | Brigada Games | |
 | The Crust | $31.99 | 3,502 76% | 105k | $3.4M (exactly $3,360,869) | VEOM Studio | |
 | Mind Over Magic | $24.99 | 4,314 86% | 129k | $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) | Sparkypants | |
 | Tower Dominion | $17.49 | 5,117 85% | 154k | $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) | Parallel 45 Games | |
 | Nordhold | $19.99 | 2,875 87% | 86k | $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) | StunForge | |
 | MEMORIAPOLIS | $32.00 | 1,752 75% | 53k | $1.7M (exactly $1,681,920) | 5PM Studio | |
 | Parcel Simulator | $17.99 | 2,804 93% | 84k | $1.5M (exactly $1,513,319) | Dansan Digital | |
 | Survivalist: Invisible Strain | $11.99 | 4,014 87% | 120k | $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) | Bob |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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