Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Choices Matter

Only 17 developers shipped a Choices Matter Agriculture game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Cattle Country, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $190k, ×304 the market median. Revenue is up 350% on the market; 44 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 350% on the market, 44 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $19k → $3.5k → $539 → $3.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,999)
Top 25% $9.6k (exactly $9,590)
Top 5% $191k (exactly $190,849)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 51
Announced 44
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 350% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture, Choices Matter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Economy, Resource Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 644 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $9.5k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
One Hour One Life older $14.99 3,988 79% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,793,404) Jason Rohrer
Thriving City: Song older $18.99 3,054 81% 92k $1.7M (exactly $1,739,864) White Star Studio
Hundred Days - Winemaking Simulator older $24.99 1,033 77% 31k $774k (exactly $774,440) Broken Arms Games
Cattle Country $18.99 335 86% 10k $191k (exactly $190,849) Castle Pixel, LLC.
Farm Keeper older $4.99 390 91% 12k $58k (exactly $58,383) Cuddle Code
Dream Life in the Country Side $14.99 87 83% 2.6k $39k (exactly $39,124) Moonlit Cafe
Tidal Tribe older $14.99 81 88% 2.4k $36k (exactly $36,426) PowPit
Under The Yoke older $9.99 64 79% 1.9k $19k (exactly $19,181) Priory Games
Grand Cru: The Wine Maker $14.99 37 86% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) hAi Corp
The people of Sea, Sun & Salt $9.99 44 100% 1.3k $13k (exactly $13,187) Emerick Gibson
The Diner at the End of the Galaxy · EA $9.99 32 59% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) General Interactive Co.
Baskin All-In: The Family · EA $8.99 26 65% 780 $7.0k (exactly $7,012) TheSugarRay
Wrangle Ranch $5.99 21 95% 630 $3.8k (exactly $3,774) BenBonk, XraiDev
双雄风流传(Romantic Emperor) $2.18 53 86% 1.6k $3.5k (exactly $3,466) Turtle game
Apoikia · EA $24.99 4 50% 120 $3.0k (exactly $2,999) Charlie
Fortune & Famine $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Simeous Business, Mid Level Meeple

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.