Do I ship it?

GamesChoices MatterChoices Matter + Fishing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Fishing game?

Choices Matter + Fishing

Of 24 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Fishing game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×6.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×279 the market median. Revenue is up 530% on the market; 34 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 530% on the market, 34 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Fishing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.4k → $1.2k → $1.9k → $3.0k → $8.4k (still earning) → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Fishing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 25% $47k (exactly $46,685)
Top 5% $133k (exactly $132,644)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 40
Announced 34
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 530% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Fishing
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter, Fishing; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.49 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.49 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 3,216 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $46k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wild West Legacy older $26.99 1,706 39% 51k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,348) Moon Punch Studio
Lakeview Valley older $14.99 710 82% 21k $319k (exactly $319,287) Roope Tamminen
Voodoo Fishin' · EA $9.99 800 81% 24k $240k (exactly $239,760) Lost Arcade
Lake of Creatures $12.49 354 92% 11k $133k (exactly $132,644) ANTENNA GAMES
Shinehill $10.99 265 95% 8.0k $87k (exactly $87,370) Peach Bite
Loan Shark $3.99 635 84% 19k $76k (exactly $76,010) Studio Ortica
Carp Fishing Simulator older $13.99 174 60% 5.2k $73k (exactly $73,028) Dangerous Derk Interactive
Dating Simulator older $4.99 417 55% 13k $62k (exactly $62,425) piratecat games
NTR Hunter $14.99 119 78% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) Team18
Don't Sleep With The Fishes $1.99 782 95% 23k $47k (exactly $46,685) Taiki
The Wide Open Sky is Running out of Catfish $14.99 57 100% 1.7k $26k (exactly $25,633) ZIPIT! Games
Apocalypse: The Last RV · EA $4.99 159 68% 4.8k $24k (exactly $23,802) 光年切片工作室
Bitter Harvest $9.99 28 71% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) BitQuest Studio
Thrae $7.99 17 64% 510 $4.1k (exactly $4,075) skery games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.