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Should I ship a Choices Matter Metroidvania?
Choices Matter + Metroidvania
Of 30 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Metroidvania in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 126 more are announced, ×9.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.5k, ×7.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $190k, ×400 the market median. Revenue is up 190% on the market; 126 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $719 (exactly $719) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.5k (exactly $3,506) |
| Top 25% | $12k (exactly $11,870) |
| Top 5% | $190k (exactly $190,223) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 30 |
| Released games | 85 |
| Announced | 126 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 190% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Metroidvania
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter, Metroidvania; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, 2D Platformer
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 1,675 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 126 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×9.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Afterimage 2023 · $5.2M 
Reventure 2019 · $3.1M 
Vigil: The Longest Night 2020 · $2.2M 
Vagante 2018 · $1.9M 
Infernax 2022 · $1.3M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Afterimage | older | $24.99 | 6,929 79% | 208k | $5.2M (exactly $5,194,671) | Aurogon Shanghai |
| | Reventure | older | $12.34 | 8,451 95% | 254k | $3.1M (exactly $3,128,560) | Pixelatto |
| | Vigil: The Longest Night | older | $21.99 | 3,333 85% | 100k | $2.2M (exactly $2,198,780) | Glass Heart Games |
| | Vagante | older | $14.99 | 4,118 90% | 124k | $1.9M (exactly $1,851,865) | Nuke Nine |
| | Infernax | older | $19.99 | 2,128 93% | 64k | $1.3M (exactly $1,276,162) | Berzerk Studio |
 | Ultros | older | $24.99 | 787 80% | 24k | $590k (exactly $590,014) | Hadoque |
 | The Knight Witch | older | $19.99 | 643 72% | 19k | $386k (exactly $385,607) | Super Mega Team |
 | Dunjungle | $14.99 | 692 96% | 21k | $311k (exactly $311,192) | Bruno Bombardi | |
 | Future Fragments | older | $19.99 | 450 74% | 14k | $270k (exactly $269,865) | The Future Fragments Team |
 | FOUNTAINS | $14.99 | 423 84% | 13k | $190k (exactly $190,223) | John Pywell | |
 | The Siege and the Sandfox | $14.99 | 180 64% | 5.4k | $81k (exactly $80,946) | Cardboard Sword | |
 | The Perfect Pencil | $24.99 | 68 70% | 2.0k | $51k (exactly $50,980) | Studio Cima | |
 | Adventure of Samsara | $19.99 | 66 89% | 2.0k | $40k (exactly $39,580) | Ilex Games | |
 | Welcome to Planet E1d0r4d0! | $8.99 | 119 68% | 3.6k | $32k (exactly $32,094) | LuluGames | |
 | Space Sprouts | $10.99 | 51 96% | 1.5k | $17k (exactly $16,815) | Schleuder Games | |
 | DEATH PENALTY | $11.99 | 33 84% | 990 | $12k (exactly $11,870) | HACKJOB | |
 | Princess Pomu and the 5 Moons | $11.99 | 29 86% | 870 | $10k (exactly $10,431) | Pixel Dominus | |
 | Foreign Sun | $19.99 | 14 100% | 420 | $8.4k (exactly $8,396) | Final Scene dev |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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